摘要
[目的]基于1960—2015年的云南省31个气象站点逐日平均气温、最高气温、最低气温和降水量等数据,研究极端气候指数的时空变化,为降低云南省自然灾害对农业生产的影响,以及制定应对气候风险的策略提供依据。[方法]采用国际气候诊断与指数小组(ETCDD-MI)定义的极端气候指标,运用线性趋势法和克里金插值法等对其进行分析。[结果]7个气温指数中,夏季日数、冷昼日数和寒潮持续指数呈下降趋势,霜冻日数、月极端最高气温、月极端最低气温和暖夜日数呈上升的趋势。空间变异分析显示夏季日数、月极端最高气温和月极端最低气温由南向北递减,暖夜日数、冷昼日数和寒潮持续指数表现为东高西低。7个极端气温指数的变化趋势中,霜冻日数和冷昼日数的变化趋势与海拔高度呈显著的负相关关系,月极端最高气温的趋势与海拔高度呈极显著的正相关关系。6个降水指数中,日最大降水量、连续干旱日数和极强降水量呈上升的趋势,大雨日数、连续湿日数和年总降水量呈下降的趋势。日最大降水量和大雨日数由南向北递减,连续湿日数和年总降水量由西南向东北递减,连续干旱日数高值中心主要位于云南的中部和东部,极强降水量主要集中在德宏州和保山市。云南省的极端强降水由西南向东北递减。6个极端降水指数的变化趋势与海拔的相关性均未达到显著水平。[结论]这些极端气候变化特征表明云南省有变干和变暖的趋势,农业生产应采取适应性对策。
Daily data for average temperatures,maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation,observed at 31 meteorological stations in the Yunnan province from 1960 to 2015,were used to study the changes in extreme climate index.The study employed regression analysis and Kriging methods,and adopted the indices of extreme climate defined by the CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM expert team on climate change detection and indices.Results showed that the number of sunny days,the cold day index and the cold wave duration index all showed a downward trend from 1960 to 2015,while the number of frost days,warmest days,coldest days and warm nights all showed an upward trend.Spatial variation analysis found that the numbers of sunny days,warmest days and coldest days showed a decreasing trend from the southern to the northern areas of the province,while the warm night index,cold day index and cold wave duration index were higher in the east and lower in the north.Among the seven extreme temperature indices,the number of frost days and the cold day index were found to be significantly and negatively correlated with altitude,but the warmest day index was significantly and positively correlated with altitude.Among the six precipitation indices,the daily maximum precipitation,the number of consecutive dry days and the amount of heavy precipitation showed an upward trend,while the heavy precipitation days,the maximum consecutive wet days and the annual amount of precipitation showed a downward trend.As for spatial distribution,the daily maximum precipitation and the heavy precipitation index showed decreasing trends from the southern to the northern parts of the province,while the number of consecutive wet days and annual precipitation showed a decreasing trend from southwest to northeast.The areas with the highest values for the maximum number of continuous dry days were mainly located in the central and eastern parts of the province and strong precipitation was mainly concentrated in Dehong and Baoshan,in the western part of the province.The distr
作者
徐用兵
雷秋良
周脚根
张亦涛
武淑霞
翟丽梅
王洪媛
李影
刘宏斌
Xu Yongbing;Lei Qiuliang;Zhou Jiaogen;Zhang Yitao;Wu Shuxia;Zhai Limei;Wang Hongyuan;Li Ying;Liu Hongbin(Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Key Laboratory of Non-point Pollution Control,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100081,China;School of Urban and Environmental Science,Huaiyin Normal University,Huai′an 223399,Jiangsu,China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China)
出处
《中国农业资源与区划》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第11期15-27,共13页
Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“高原农业洱海流域农田氮素径流损失模拟研究”(31572208)
公益性行业(农业)科研专项“典型流域主要农业源污染物入湖负荷及防控技术研究与示范”(201303089)
国家重点研发计划项目“北方水稻化肥农药减施技术集成研究与示范”(2018YFD0200200)。
关键词
极端气温
极端降水
变化趋势
空间变异
海拔
extreme temperature
extreme precipitation
variation trend
spatial variation
elevation
