摘要
教育人力资本是影响经济发展的重要因素。通过分析中国教育人力资本现状,发现我国教育人力资本发展水平明显提高,但与支撑经济高质量发展的需要还存在一定差距。文章对"十四五"以及今后更长一段时期中国教育人力资本供给和需求变化进行预测和分析,并预测了每年新增劳动力的教育人力资本水平和分产业的教育人力资本需求变化。预测结果显示:"十四五"时期,教育人力资本总体水平有所提高,教育人力资本需求增长比较平稳,教育人力资本供给可以满足需求增长的需要。不过,教育人力资本结构性问题依然存在,对高质量的教育人力资本的大规模需求成为主要矛盾。为提升教育人力资本、改善其分布结构,需要加大教育投入水平,推进教育公平,扩大急需人才培养。
Education human capital is an important factor affecting economic development.By analyzing the current situation of China’s education human capital,this paper finds that the level of education human capital in China has significantly improved,but there is still a certain gap with the need to support the development of high-quality economy.This paper predicts and analyzes the trends in China’s education human capital supply and demand in the 14th Five-Year Plan period and the longer period in the future.This paper also predicts the level of education human capital of the new entrants of labor farce and trends of education human capital demand by industry.The results show that,during the 14th Five-Year Plan period,the overall level of education human capital would increase,with the overall average number of years of education is expected to reach 11.16 years,the demand for education human capital would increase steadily,and it is expected to reach 9.9 years.The education human capital supply would meet the needs of demand growth.However,there would still be structural problems of education human capital,especially the large-scale demand for high-quality education human capital would become the principle contradiction.In order to improve the overall level and distribution structure of education human capital,it is necessary to increase the level of educational input,promote educational equity and expand the training of talents in urgent need.
作者
谢倩芸
蔡翼飞
Xie Qianyun;Cai Yifei(Institute of Population and Labor Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100006)
出处
《中国人力资源开发》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第12期17-33,共17页
Human Resources Development of China
基金
中国社会科学院创新工程项目“创新经济理论和政策”。
关键词
“十四五”
教育人力资本供需
预测分析
the 14th Five-Year Plan
Education Human Capital Supply and Demand
Forecasting Analysis
