摘要
间日疟的传播媒介中华按蚊仍普遍存在,但对间日疟的传播动态的研究仍极其有限。以安徽省间日疟为例,估算蚊子叮咬率、间日疟的传染率以及它们的季节性,并进一步分析传染率发生季节性变化的影响因素。采用人类与蚊子相耦合的SIR-SI(Susceptible Infected Recovered-Susceptible Infected)模型对间日疟的传播动态建模,估算随时间变化的蚊子叮咬率以及传染率;建立多元线性回归模型探究温度和降水量对蚊子叮咬率和间日疟传染率的影响。结果表明:间日疟蚊子叮咬率和传染率有显著的年季节性(季节性幅度为42.4%);间日疟传染率受到温度(p值为7.23e-11)以及降水量(p值为0.004)的显著影响;间日疟发病数受传染率的影响不仅呈现每年一个周期的特点,由于易感者人数的变化,还存在多年一个大周期的特点。
The vector of p.vivax malaria,Anopheles sinensis,is still prevalent in China,but the study on transmission dynamics of p.vivax malaria is still limited.We took p.vivax malaria in Anhui province as an example,and estimated the mosquito biting rate,p.vivax malaria transmission rate and their seasonality.We further analyzed the factors affecting the seasonality in the transmission rate.The SIR-SI(Susceptible Infected Recovered-Susceptible Infected)human-mosquito coupled model was adopted for the transmission dynamics of p.vivax and the mosquito biting rate and the transmission rate over time were estimated.A multiple linear regression model was established to analyze the effects of temperature and rainfall on mosquito biting rate and p.vivax malaria transmission rate.Our results showed that:The mosquito biting rate and transmission rate of p.vivax malaria have significant annual seasonality(seasonal amplitude of 42.4%);The transmission rate of p.vivax malaria was significantly affected by temperature(p=7.23e-11)and rainfall(p=0.004);The number of the Infected of p.vivax malaria not only had one year cyclic pattern,but also showed multi-year cyclic pattern due to long-term change in the number of the Susceptible.
作者
白迪
周武略
赵继军
BAI Di;ZHOU Wulüe;ZHAO Jijun(Institute of Complex Science, Qingdao 266071, China)
出处
《复杂系统与复杂性科学》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第1期73-79,共7页
Complex Systems and Complexity Science
基金
山东自然科学基金(ZR2018MH037)。
关键词
间日疟
传染率季节性
温度
降水量
p.vivax malaria
transmission rate seasonality
temperature
rainfall
