摘要
中国经济加快形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。出口平稳发展,是改善国际大循环、服务国内大循环,最终实现双循环发展格局定位的重要基础。从微观视角探讨企业对外直接投资通过其全球价值链分工位置变化对其出口持续概率的影响作用。回归结果发现:(1)企业对外直接投资行为对其出口持续概率影响作用处于辩证变化状态。企业对外直接投资行为对其出口持续概率的直接效应显著为负,但其通过全球价值链分工位置提升对其出口持续概率的中介效应则显著为正,这说明企业对外直接投资行为对其出口持续概率的影响作用,同时存在直接的替代效应以及间接的促进效应。(2)企业对外直接投资行为对其出口持续概率的直接效应显著为负,且依据其贸易方式、要素密集类型特征以及投资目的地不同而变化,其中以一般贸易为主的企业、劳动密集型企业以及对发展中国家直接投资的企业表现得最为强烈。(3)企业对外直接投资通过其全球价值链分工位置变化对其出口持续概率的中介效应的调节效应各有特点。其中,企业融资能力的调节效应最为强烈,其次是企业技术效率,企业出口产品质量调节效应不显著。据此,提出制定出口退税等补助政策鼓励企业维持出口贸易业务、鼓励和支持企业加快实现业务模式多元化升级等措施建议。
Outward direct investment is a topic closely related to export sustainability.There are a lot of research results on the relationship between ODI and export.However,it has not been found that scholars have systematically and comprehensively demonstrated and analyzed the export persistence effect of enterprises'outward direct investment,and there are seldom research results on the effect of the change of division of labor position in the global value chain on its export sustainability from the micro-perspective.In contrast,the impact of ODI on export sustainability from a micro-perspective is demonstrated,and the intermediate transmission effect of the change of division of labor in the global value chain is further studied,which is conducive to enrich the existing research results system.Firstly,select Cox model to test the impact of upgrading the division of labor status in the global value chain of specific products on its export persistence probability.The Cox model is highly dependent on the risk distribution model.Based on a systematic study of the impact of ODI on export behavior and the performance of heterogeneity,an intermediary model and a moderated intermediary model are first introduced to further explore the impact of ODI on its export persistence probability through the change of its global value chain division of labor and its internal transmission mechanism.Secondly,empirical analysis is carried out through the above research design.The regression results show that:The effect of ODI behavior on export persistence probability is in a dialectical state.The direct effect of ODI on export persistence probability is significantly negative,but the mediating effect is significantly positive through the promotion of division of labor position in the global value chain,which indicates that there are direct substitution effect and indirect promotion effect.The direct effect of ODI on the export persistence probability is significantly negative,and varies according to the trade mode,factor intensive type cha
作者
林梨奎
LIN Li-kui(School of Finance and Investment,Guangdong University of Finance,Guangzhou 510521,China)
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第12期72-80,共9页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“共生理论视角下中国与‘一带一路’国家间产业转移模式与路径研究”(17ZDA047)
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“结构性减税对地区平衡发展的挑战与财政再平衡策略研究”(20YJCZH015)
广东省普通高校创新团队项目“资产管理研究”(2018WCXTD004)。
关键词
对外直接投资
出口国内增加值率
出口持续概率
久期分析
中介模型
outward direct investment
rate of domestic value added in exports
export survival probability
duration analysis
mediation model
