摘要
开发西部、振兴东北、实施"一带一路"战略,使人民币实际有效汇率通过对外贸易渠道对各省实际产出产生差异化影响。通过构建Panel Data固定影响的变截距模型,发现人民币实际有效汇率波动对全国六个区域31个省际实际产出影响趋势一致,但影响程度不同。对华东、华南和西南地区18个省份中影响相对缓和;对西北、东北和华北地区13个省份影响比较显著。因此,我们需要通过确立对外贸易差异化定位、推进人民币国际化进程、优化国内市场布局,发挥人民币实际有效汇率对各省实际产出的促进作用。
With the development plan in western China,the revitalization of northeast area,and the implementation of One Belt and Road strategy,RMB real effective exchange rate has had differentiated effects on real GDP of each individual province via the foreign trade channel.The empirical analysis on the basis of the quarterly data from year 2000 to 2019 through VAR model shows the mutual Granger causality between RMB real effective exchange rate and real GDP,with a time lag for the impacts of the former on the latter.With a fixed-effect variable-intercept Panal Data model,the effect of changes in RMB real effective exchange rate on 31 provincial real GDP in the six regions in China is characterized by the same trend but different magnitudes.The effect is relatively moderate for the 18 provinces in eastern,southern,and south western China,but more significant for the remaining 13 provinces in north eastern,north western,and northern China.To give a play to RMB real effective exchange rate to facilitate the growth in real GDP,China should position the differentiation in foreign trade,push forward RMB internationalization,and optimize the domestic market layout.
作者
戴序
杨翊晗
DAI Xu;YANG Yihan
出处
《吉林金融研究》
2020年第10期19-22,共4页
Journal of Jilin Financial Research
