摘要
系统回顾了世界石油工业160年的发展历程,认为5个主要因素影响了世界石油工业的发展:理论认识和科技创新支撑了石油工业的发展;行业外科技的发展带动油气消费是石油工业发展的重要推动力量;石油公司作为石油工业发展的主要载体推动了世界石油工业不断向前发展;石油具有明显的国家政治属性,石油工业的发展伴随激烈的政治博弈;油价走势影响石油公司上游战略,进而对世界石油工业发展产生重大影响。展望未来,世界油气资源丰富,天然气开发将提速;区域油气供/需不平衡将导致地缘政治对油气工业的影响加剧;技术创新持续推动行业发展,油公司模式将发生根本性改变;油气用途将更加广泛,利用效率将进一步提高。
This paper systematically reviews the 160-year development course of global oil industry and divides it into five stages as slow,rapid,take-off,low-speed and stable development stages.The analysis holds that the development course of world oil industry are dominated by the following five main factors:the theoretical and technological innovation supporting oil industry development;the non-oil technologies driving oil/gas consumption and industry growth;the oil companies leading the continuous advance of world oil industry;the crude oil’s obvious national political attribute and world intense political competition going along petroleum industry trajectory;and the oil price trends making a difference to the upstream strategies of oil companies and to oil industry landscape.Looking forward,it believes that the world is rich in hydrocarbon resources with natural gas set to speed up,regional imbalance in oil/gas supply and demand will lead to increased geopolitical impact on oil and gas industry,technological innovations will continue to push oil industry advance and significantly change the business models of oil companies,and oil and gas will be used more widely and efficiently.
作者
田纳新
张礼貌
姜向强
Tian Naxin;Zhang Limao;Jiang Xiangqiang(Sinopec Petroleum Exploration and Production Research Institute,Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《当代石油石化》
CAS
2020年第10期5-12,38,共9页
Petroleum & Petrochemical Today
关键词
石油工业
发展历程
影响因素
发展势趋
oil industry
development history
influencing factors
development trend
