摘要
目的建立一种相对检测次数最小的突发疫情和公共卫生的病原检测分组方法。方法通过建立以相对检测次数的数学期望最小为目标函数的优化模型,进行最优的每组人数的求解方法。结果模型计算表明,在检测指标结果判定为阳性是小概率的情况下,可降低相对检测次数,如在人群中指标异常概率为1%时,按照模型确定的小组人数为11,相对检测次数为19.56%,即可节约80.44%的检测工作量和检测成本。结论所建立的分组检测方法可以减少检测时间,节约成本,为及时有效地采取有针对性的控制措施争取先机。
Objective To establish a detection grouping method of pathogens based on minimum relative detection times for outbreak epidemic situation and public health events.Methods By establishing the optimization model with the minimum mathematical expectation of the relative detection times as the objective function,the optimal solution method of people in each group was carried out.Results The model calculation showed that the relative detection times could be reduced when the result of detection index was judged as positive to be a small probability.For example,when the abnormal probability of index in the crowd was 1%,the number of each group determined by the model was 11,and the relative detection times were 19.56%,which could save 80.44%of detection workload and cost.Conclusion The detection grouping method established can reduce the detection time,save the cost,and strive for the first opportunity for timely and effective control measures.
作者
赵冰
邱启荣
ZHAO Bing;QIU Qi-rong(Hospital of North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)
出处
《中国校医》
2020年第11期816-818,822,共4页
Chinese Journal of School Doctor
关键词
模型
统计学
最优分组人数
疾病暴发流行
公共卫生
model,statistics
optimal grouping number of people
disease outbreak epidemic
public health
