摘要
本文基于2006~2020年数据,研究猪肉价格周期性波动原因,分析判断猪肉价格变化趋势及其对CPI的影响效应。研究发现:1.猪价在CPI篮子中的权重高、猪价波动大、猪价对替代品价格传导效应强是猪价和CPI走势高度一致的主要原因。2.外部冲击、生猪产能调整的滞后性和超调性是猪周期产生的主要原因,本能超级猪周期是由非洲猪瘟疫情对供给端的深度影响造成,同时新冠疫情和南方水灾又进一步拉长猪价峰值的持续时间。3.基于猪周期特征和相关先行指标预测,本轮猪周期拐点大致出现在2020年四季度中段,从2020年四季度中段开始,猪价将呈现趋势性回落态势,2020年四季度—2021年一季度,猪价将会拉动CPI平均下降约0.7个百分点。
Based on the data from 2006 to 2020,this paper examines the causes of cyclical fluctuations in pork prices,analyzes and determines the trend of pork prices and its effect on the CPI.The study found that,first,the high weight of pork prices in the CPI basket,the high volatility of pork prices,and the strong price transmission effect of pork prices on substitutes are the main reasons why pork prices and CPI trends are highly consistent.Second,external shocks,hysteresis and overadjustment of piglet production capacity adjustment are the major causes of the pork price cycle,and the current super pork price cycle is caused by the deep impact of the African Swine Fever on the supply side,while the coVID-19 and southern floods further lengthen the duration of peak pork prices.Last,based on the analysis of characteristics and the relevant leading indicators of the pork price cycle,we predicted that the inflection point in the current pig cycle occurs in the middle of the fourth quarter of 2020,after then,pig prices will show a downward trend.From the fourth quarter of 2020 to the first quarter of 2021,pork prices will pull the CPI down by an average of 0.7 percentage points.
出处
《浙江金融》
2020年第10期32-39,共8页
Zhejiang Finance
