摘要
恢复生猪生产和提高猪肉市场供应保障能力,关键取决于养殖场户的生产决策。基于山东、河北、四川、黑龙江和北京5省(市)实地调查获取的微观数据,采用有序Logit模型实证分析非洲猪瘟疫情背景下影响养殖场户生产决策的因素。研究表明,养殖场户扩大养殖规模的意愿比较低,被调查养殖场户中愿意扩大养殖规模的仅占24.38%,而选择维持不变的占56.25%,决定未来缩小养殖规模或逐步退出养猪行业的占19.38%;养殖收入占家庭总收入比例高、生猪价格上涨、了解当地养殖场建设补贴政策对养殖场户扩大养殖规模决策有显著促进作用,其中了解当地养殖场建设补贴政策的影响程度最大;而决策人年龄大、购买养殖保险以及养殖成本增加对养殖场户扩大养殖规模决策具有显著制约作用;决策人受教育程度、家庭人口规模、家庭借贷情况、养殖规模、参加合作组织情况以及与发生非洲猪瘟疫情疫点的距离对养殖场户生产决策影响不显著。据此提出完善生猪产业恢复生产扶持政策、加强政策支持的宣传力度、完善生猪养殖保险制度体系、创新生猪养殖保险产品、培养新型职业养殖者来尽快恢复生猪生产的政策建议。
The key to recovering hog production and to improving the security of pork supply depends on farmers’production decision.Based on a micro-data obtained from the field survey in Shandong,Hebei,Sichuan,Heilongjiang,and Beijing,this study empirically analyzed the factors influencing farmers’production decision under the background of African swine flu epidemic by the ordered Logit model.Results show that only 24.38%of farmers surveyed are willing to expand the scale of breeding,while 56.25%choose to keep the scale unchanged,and 19.38%decide to reduce the scale of hog breeding or gradually to withdraw from hog industry in the future.The high proportion of breeding income to the total household income,the rise in the hog price,and the understanding of the subsidy policy for the construction of local breeding farms have significant influences on farmers’decision to expand the breeding scale.Among them,understanding the local farm construction subsidy policy has the greatest impact.However,the decisionmakers’age,the purchase of breeding insurance,and the increase of breeding cost have significant constraint impacts on farmers’decision to expand the breeding scale.The education level of the decision-maker,the size of household,the family loan,the scale of breeding,the participation in cooperative organizations,and the distance from the epidemic spot of African swine flu have no significant impacts on farmers’production decision.Based on the above results,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions,including perfecting the supporting policy for hog industry to recover production,strengthening the propaganda of policy support,improving the system of hog breeding insurance,innovating the hog breeding insurance products,and training new professional farmers to recover hog production as soon as possible.
作者
聂赟彬
高翔
李秉龙
乔娟
NIE Yun-bin;GAO Xiang;LI Bing-long;QIAO Juan(College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《农业现代化研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第6期1031-1039,共9页
Research of Agricultural Modernization
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(18BGL169)
现代农业产业技术体系北京市创新团队(BAIC02)。
