摘要
本文通过建立两国DSGE模型,研究跨境资本流动对中美国际收支失衡的影响,解释中国国际收支持续顺差和美国国际收支持续逆差的原因。通过引入对外金融资产负债可持续约束,从对外金融资产负债动态平衡的视角展开研究,阐述了中美两国资本流动的内在动因:中国有较高的资产边际产出,在吸收FDI的同时,需要积累相应的外汇储备以满足对外金融资产负债可持续约束;而中国的外汇储备又通过美国的全球金融系统回流到美国,使得美国可以维持经常账户逆差。数值模拟结果很好地拟合了真实的经济数据。本文以G20成员为研究样本,实证研究了对外金融资产负债可持续约束的存在,解释了美国从中美经贸合作中获益巨大的事实,以及中国需要积累外汇储备和不断提升金融市场效率的政策含义。
This paper studied the impact of cross-border capital flows on the imbalance of payments between China and the United States through two-country DSGE Model,and explained the reason for China's balance of payments surplus and the US deficit.Through the introduction of external debt sustainability constraints,the internal motivation of capital flows between the two countries is based on the dynamic balance of external financial assets and liabilities:it needs to accumulate corresponding foreign exchange reserves to meet the external debt sustainability constraints when China absorbs FDI,and China's foreign exchange reserves allow the United States to maintain a balance of payments deficit.An empirical study using G20 members as a research sample demonstrates the existence of external debt sustainability.The numerical simulation results are well fitted to the real economic data.
作者
朱孟楠
陈冲
ZHU Mengnan;CHEN Chong
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第11期159-174,共16页
Journal of International Trade
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“重大突发公共卫生事件冲击下的全球金融风险溢出及其管理研究”(72073113)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“动态优化视角下的中国外汇储备全面风险管理研究”(71473208)。
