摘要
选取2005年第1季度至2019年第4季度数据构建面板门槛回归模型研究发现:我国房价对消费的影响存在显著的单重门限突变效应,即房价水平未超越门槛值时表现为财富效应,房价水平超越门槛值后表现为挤出效应;房价对消费的影响存在显著的区域异质性,东部地区表现出门槛突变效应,中部地区不存在门槛效应,西部地区存在门槛抑制效应。因此,我国应该采取合适的调控策略将房价维持在合适的区间,采取差别化信贷政策,探讨多样化住房补贴政策,提升“工资效应”的传导效果。
Based on the data from the first quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2019,this paper constructs the panel threshold regression model,finding that there is a significant single threshold mutation effect in the impact of housing prices on consumption,that is,when the house price level does not exceed the threshold value,it appears as a wealth effect,and when the house price level exceeds the threshold value,it shows a crowding-out effect,that there is significant regional heterogeneity in the impact of housing prices on consumption,and that the eastern region shows a threshold mutation effect,the central region does not have a threshold effect,and the western region has a threshold suppression effect.Therefore,China should adopt appropriate control strategies to maintain house prices in an appropriate range,adopt differentiated credit policies,explore diversified housing subsidy policies,and enhance the transmission effect of the“wage effect”.
作者
杨柳
YANG Liu(School of Economics,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang,Jiangxi.330013)
出处
《价格月刊》
北大核心
2020年第11期39-46,共8页
基金
江西省高校人文社会科学研究2019年度项目“供给侧结构性改革下中国非常规货币政策的路径优化研究”(编号:JJ19201)。
关键词
居民消费
房地产价格
面板门槛模型
residents’consumption
real estate price
panel threshold model
