摘要
针对常用Knothe时间函数在动态预计中理论研究方面存在不足及在地表下沉初始阶段预计精度较低等问题,为了能够全面地了解矿区地表沉陷动态发展变化过程,掌握地表各重要点位的动态变形规律,提高动态预计精度和动态预计的针对性,发挥动态预计在指导矿山工程实践中的应有作用,基于概率积分模型,采用优化分段Knothe时间函数,构建了可预测地表任意点动态沉降变形的计算模型,并开发了计算程序,所建模型各参数意义明确,求取方便,同时,矿区地表监测点即使布设在非主断面上,也可根据实测数据利用模型反算概率积分参数。实例1表明:在考虑拐点偏移距的情况下,预测的地表下沉盆地两拐点的下沉值基本等于盆地最大下沉量的1/2,与理论揭示完全吻合;通过对不同时刻地表点的下沉和倾斜进行动态预计,清楚地说明了地表下沉盆地和倾斜变形的动态发展过程;另外,通过倾斜三维图及其二维等值线图的变化过程可知,下沉盆地平底部分的倾斜值尽管最终为0,但也是经历了从小到大、再从大到小、最后趋于0的剧烈变化过程,如果只进行稳定后的静态预计则反映不了这一动态过程;实例2表明:通过对比分析1176东工作面各采动期的地表监测点实测与动态预计结果,并抽样进行精度分析可知,动态预计相对中误差最小为5.6%,最大为14.2%。经统计预测相对中误差可稳定在8%左右,证明了模型预测精度是可靠性的。
Aiming at the theoretical deficiency of Knothe time function in dynamic prediction and the low prediction accuracy in the initial stage of surface subsidence,in order to fully understand the dynamic development and change process of surface subsidence in mining areas,master the dynamic deformation law of all important points on the surface,improve the precision and pertinence of dynamic prediction,and give play to the role of dynamic prediction in guiding mine engineering practice,based on the probability integral model,a calculation model and calculation program for predicting the dynamic subsidence and deformation for any point on the surface is established by using the optimized segmented Knothe time function.The parameters of the model have clear meaning and are easy to be got.At the same time,even when the surface monitoring points on the work face are arranged on the non-main section,the probability integral parameters can also be calculated by using the model according to the measured data.The first prediction example shows that the subsidence value of the two inflexion points of the subsidence basin is equal to 1/2 of the maximum subsidence value when the inflexion offset is taken into account,which is completely consistent with the theoretical disclosure.The dynamic development process of surface subsidence basin and tilt deformation is clearly illustrated by the dynamic prediction of surface subsidence and tilt at different time points.In addition,according to the change process of the tilt 3 D map and its 2 D map,although the tilt value of the flat bottom part of the sunken basin is finally 0,it also goes through a drastic change process from small to large,from large to small,and finally to 0.If only the static prediction after stability is carried out,this dynamic process cannot be reflected.The second prediction example shows that by comparing and analyzing the measured and dynamic predicted results of the surface monitoring points in each period of the east No.1176 working face,and analyzing the sa
作者
张兵
赵玉玲
崔希民
袁德宝
李春意
ZHANG Bing;ZHAO Yuling;CUI Ximin;YUAN Debao;LI Chunyi(School of Resource and Environmental Science,Shijiazhuang University,Shijiazhuang050035,China;College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering,China University of Mining&Technology-Beijing,Beijing 100083,China;School of Mining and Geomatics,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038,China;Handan Key Laboratory of Natural Resources Spatial Information,Handan 056038,China;School of Surveying and Landing Information Engineering,Henan Polytechnic University,Jiaozuo 454000,China)
出处
《煤炭科学技术》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第10期143-149,共7页
Coal Science and Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41671507)
河北省高等学校科学研究计划重点资助项目(ZD2019316)
石家庄学院博士科研基金资助项目(18BS001)
河北省自然科学基金生态智慧矿山联合基金资助项目(E2020402086)。
关键词
地表任意点
下沉盆地
开采沉陷
动态预计
any point on surface
subsidence basin
mining subsidence
dynamic prediction
