摘要
强降水严重影响烤烟生长和品质形成,对烤烟种植区进行强降水灾害风险区划将有利于烤烟种植的防灾减灾。利用2006—2018年5—6月降水量、2010—2018年烤烟产量和地形资料,采用层次分析法和灾害风险指数法,对江西省黎川县烤烟种植强降水灾害风险进行评估和区划。以单日降水强度、5日累计降水强度和高程、坡度、河网密度为危险性因子,以烤烟产量为暴露性因子,以烤烟减产率为脆弱性因子,构建烤烟种植强降水灾害风险评价指标和模型。利用模型对县域各乡镇进行风险评估,并按轻风险、低风险、中风险、高风险四个等级进行风险区划。结果表明,宏村镇烤烟种植强降水灾害风险等级最高,龙安镇、社苹乡以及县域东北部的厚村乡、洵口镇、湖坊乡、熊村镇为中等风险区,县域其他地区为低风险区或轻风险区。
Heavy precipitation seriously influences the growth and quality of flue-cured tobacco(Nicotiana tabacum L.),thus,the risk zoning of heavy precipitation in tobacco planting areas is beneficial to prevent and reduce risks induced by heavy precipitation.Based on the data of daily precipitation intensity from May to June during 2006-2018,tobacco yields and terrain data during 2010-2018,the risks of heavy precipitation on tobacco planting were evaluated and regionalized in Lichuan county of Jiangxi province,using the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Disaster Risk Index methods.The 1-day and 5-day accumulative precipitation intensities,altitude,slope,river density,tobacco yield,and reduction rate of yield were used to construct the risk assessment index and model.Then,the risk of each town was assessed using this model,and the risks were regionalized as slight,low,moderate,and high level risks.Results showed that tobacco planting in Hongcun town presented the highest-level risk of heavy precipitation,Long an town,Sheping town,and the northeast region(Houcun,Xunkou,Hufang,and Xiongcun towns)of Lichuan county exhibited the moderate-level risk,most regions of Lichuan county had the low or slight-level risk.
作者
李煜姗
王嘉琦
岳旭
段艺萍
Li Yushan;Wang Jiaqi;Yue Xu;Duan Yiping(Jiangxi Provincial Meteorological Service Center,Nanchang 330096,China)
出处
《气象与减灾研究》
2020年第2期137-143,共7页
Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research
基金
2020年江西省烟草专卖局科技项目“江西省烟区气候特征及适宜性区划研究”
2014年江西省气象服务中心自筹经费项目“连续强降水对江西烟叶的影响分析”.
关键词
灾害风险
烤烟
强降水
评估
区划
disaster risk
flue-cured tobacco
heavy precipitation
assessment
regionalization
