摘要
在充满不确定性的"百年未有之大变局"时代背景下,我国国家安全面临着诸如"黑天鹅"事件、"灰犀牛"事件以及各类"陷阱"的风险或威胁。国家安全情报与战略抗逆力是应对上述风险或威胁的国家安全屏障,二者是国家安全保障能力体系的重要组成部分,即国家安全情报为国家安全预警、决策和行动提供精准支持,而战略抗逆力的筹备、响应、恢复能力则为国家安全给予全方位、多层次、宽领域的保障。国家安全情报和战略抗逆力之间的融合动力源于二者间紧密联系及国家安全保障的需要;二者的融合需遵循相应的原则才能在国家安全保障实践中产生互补效应、共轭效应、共生效应、共振效应。通过规范研究方法分析可知,二者间融合的四个基本条件为:安全情报理论与抗逆力理论的融合;信息流、决策流和事件流的融合;思维与文化、工具与平台、方法与策略上的融合;组织结构与功能上的融合。以国家安全情报循环输出和战略抗逆力周期工作为国家安全保障能力体系中的"双轮驱动",以二者间的"合作与共享"和"协同与联动"为"双轨融合"构建过程模型。其中,保障国家安全是二者的共同目标;信息流、决策流、突发事件流是二者紧密联系的过程性纽带;而四类效应则是反映了二者融合的绩效,共同目标是应对国家安全面临的各种威胁。按照位置和作用的主次,二者间有并列、主从、嵌入式三种融合途径。
Since the 18 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,under the guidance of the overall national security outlook,the mechanism of "four beams and eight pillars"of national security in the new era has been gradually established. However,in the era "with the world undergoing profound changes",national security still faces risks or threats,such as black swan incidents,gray rhinoceros incidents and various traps. There are urgent needs in national security,including not only the precise support of national security intelligence for its early warning,decision-making and action,but also the ability of preparation,response and recovery of strategic resilience to provide comprehensive,multi-level and wide-ranging safeguards for national security. In intelligence research and services,the role of national security intelligence has been well known,but the research on strategic resilience mostly focuses on non-traditional security areas,such as emergency management,counter-terrorism,supply chain management,etc.,and few studies explore the integration of them two. Therefore,in the new era of national security system,how to achieve the integration of national security intelligence and strategic resilience is the essence of this article. After reviewing the concepts,essence and characteristics of national security intelligence and strategic resilience,we further point out that both of them are important components of national security capability,highly complementary,cooperative and unified with each other. Afterwards,from the aspects of integration power,effects,principles and conditions,we made a more comprehensive analysis of the three integration forces and four types of integration effects( complementarity,conjugation,symbiosis and resonance) between national security intelligence and strategic resilience,and five principles of integration,and used standardized research methods to explore the basic conditions for integration between the two. On the basis of the aforementioned research,a"two-wheel drive"and"two
作者
张家年
马费成
ZHANG Jianian;MA Feicheng
出处
《公安学研究》
2020年第4期35-53,123,124,共21页
Journal of Public Security Science
基金
2019年度国家社会科学基金一般项目“新时代科技安全情报理论构建与运作模式研究”(19BTQ089)。
