摘要
文章构建粤港澳大湾区多维度细化外贸数据库,在此基础上计算粤港澳大湾区各类进出口指数,并多维度分析其特征。研究发现:该地区出口指数季节性波动显著,进口指数受产业战略和大宗商品价格影响较大;顺逆差国家或地区的地理分布表明,进出口贸易总体呈"东进(口)西出(口)"和东逆(差)西顺(差)"的格局;在商品结构上,机电产品在进出口贸易中占绝对优势地位,生产原材料、配件和矿物燃料是该地区主要进口商品,同时,详细描述了机电进出口、能源、矿石和农产品进口的地理分布,以方便能源、生产和粮食安全等策略的制定;劳动密集型产品依然是最能创造贸易盈余的商品。文章还利用双重差分模型分析大湾区建设框架对进出口的影响并提出政策建议。
This paper constructs a multidimensional subdivided foreign trade database of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA).Based on this batabase,the paper calculates various import and export indices of GBA and conducts a multidimensional analysis of their characteristics.It is found that the export indices of the area demonstrate significant seasonal fluctuations and the import indices are significantly affected by industrial strategies and commodity prices.The geographical distributions of the surplus and deficit countries or regions reveal that the import and export trade is generally characterized as"import from the east and export to the west"as well as"trade deficit in the east and trade surplus in the west".In terms of commodity structure,mechanical and electrical products play a dominant role in the import and export trade,and the raw materials for production,accessories and fossil fuels are the main import commodities in this area.Meanwhile,this paper describes the geographical distributions of mechanical and electrical import and export as well as import of energy,ore and agricultural products in detail,so as to facilitate the formulation of energy,production and food security strategies.Most trade surpluses are still generated by the labor-intensive products.The paper also analyzes the influence of the development framework of GBA on import and export based on difference-in-differences model and puts forward policy suggestions.
作者
符淼
张昱
FU Miao;ZHANG Yu
出处
《国际经贸探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第10期71-85,共15页
International Economics and Trade Research
基金
粤港澳大湾区发展广州智库2018年度重点课题(2018GZWTZD31)
教育部人文社科项目(17YJA790021)
广东省自然科学基金项目(2017A030313439)。
关键词
外贸指数
粤港澳大湾区
多维度特征分析
时空分布
双重差分模型
foreign trade index
Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA)
multidimensional characteristic analysis
temporal-spatial distribution
difference-in-differences model
