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基于蒙特卡洛方法的飞机襟翼不对称风险预测 被引量:4

A Risk Prediction of Aircraft Flap Asymmetry Based on Monte Carlo Method
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摘要 为了研究民航飞机在飞行时后缘襟翼不对称引起的飞行安全问题,基于蒙特卡洛模拟方法,利用飞行QAR数据建立了后缘襟翼不对称风险预测模型。使用某航空公司机型为B737-800的2架飞机航班数据作为模型样本数据,运用Matlab编程进行8000次模拟抽样试验,得到了飞机在稳定飞行状态下,后缘襟翼不对称风险预测曲线,根据曲线分布特征将风险值定量划分为4个等级。研究结果表明,飞机稳态飞行时,不同飞机同一风险值下对应的后缘襟翼左右角度差值并不相同。通过制定风险值等级,确定差异化的监控阈值,可以更准确有效地监控后缘襟翼不对称故障,为航空公司关于襟翼不对称超限事件维修工程管理提供一定的技术参考。 In order to study safety problems of civil aircrafts caused by asymmetry of trailing edge flaps during flight,a risk prediction model of the asymmetry of trailing-edge flaps is developed based on the Monte Carlo simulation method,using the flight Quick Access Recorder(QAR)data.The flight data of two B737-800 aircrafts of one airline are used as sample data for the model.The asymmetric risk prediction curve of the trailing-edge flaps is obtained from8000 simulated sample tests using Matlab programming,and the risk values are quantitatively classified into four levels according to the curve distribution characteristics.The results show that the corresponding left and right trailing-edge flap angles are different under the same risk value in different aircrafts under stable flight condition.By setting risk levels and determining differentiated monitoring threshold,the asymmetric failure of the trailing-edge flaps can be monitored more accurately and effectively.This model can provide a certain technical reference for the maintenance engineering management of asymmetric trailing-edge flap in airlines.
作者 马超 张雄飞 徐建新 MA Chao;ZHANG Xiongfei;XU Jianxin(Aeronautical Engineering College,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)
出处 《交通信息与安全》 CSCD 北大核心 2020年第3期24-31,共8页 Journal of Transport Information and Safety
基金 中央高校基本科研业务费项目(3122019085)资助。
关键词 飞行安全 襟翼不对称 风险预测 蒙特卡洛 QAR数据 flight safety flap asymmetry risk prediction Monte Carlo QAR data
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