摘要
我国于二十世纪九十年代引入联保贷款业务,但联保贷款业务的实际运行发展很不理想。为了有效开展该业务,就必须了解农户联保贷款参与意愿及其影响因素。基于理性小农理论,利用陕西永寿2054个农户微观调查数据,运用二元Probit模型,分析农户联保贷款需求与融资渠道,探讨农户联保贷款参与意愿及其影响因素。结果表明,近5年内,在发生过借贷需求的农户中,只有35户农户实际参与过联保贷款,而愿意参与联保贷款的农户比例为14.75%,农户联保贷款参与意愿还有待提高。农户融资渠道主要有金融机构和民间借贷二种方式。农户联保贷款需求预期、收益预期和风险预期对农户联保贷款参与意愿存在显著正向影响;农户个人特征、农户家庭经济特征和农户联保贷款认知对农户联保贷款参与意愿也存在一定影响。据此,提出应提高农户联保贷款需求预期和收益预期,降低农户联保贷款风险预期;优化联保贷款模式或制度设计,提升服务质量;强化联保贷款担保权能,促进联户担保机制有效运行的政策建议。
In the 1990s,China introduced the group lending business.However,the actual development of the group lending business was not ideal.In order to carry out the group lending business effectively,it is necessary to understand the participating willingness in this business and the influencing factors of rural households’decision.Based on a microsurvey data of 2054 rural households in Yongshou,Shaanxi Province and applying the rational farmer theory,this study seeks to explore farmers’participating willingness and the influencing factors by a binary Probit model.Results show that only 35 rural households in the past 5 years among the surveyed rural households who had experienced loan demand had actually participated in group lending.And the proportion of rural households’willingness to participate in group lending was 14.75%.It revealed that their participating willingness in group lending needs improvement.There are two main financing channels,including financial institutions and private lending,for rural households.Rural households’demand expectations,income expectations and risk expectations of group lending had significant positive impacts on their participating willingness.In addition,rural households’personal characteristics,rural households’economic characteristics and the group lending cognition also had some impacts on their participating willingness.Therefore,this study provides the following suggestions:increasing the demand expectations and income expectations,decreasing the risk expectations of rural households’group lending,optimizing the mode or system design of the group lending,improving the quality of services,strengthening the guarantee capabilities of the group lending,and promoting the effective operation of the rural households’co-guarantee mechanism.
作者
胡杰
罗剑朝
万素晨
罗博文
HU Jie;LUO Jian-chao;WAN Su-chen;LUO Bo-wen(School of Economics and Management,Northwest A&F University,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China;Shaanxi Rural Finance Research Center,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China)
出处
《农业现代化研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第5期813-823,共11页
Research of Agricultural Modernization
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71873100,71573210)
西北农林科技大学人文社科重大培育项目(2452019155)。
关键词
农户联保
联保贷款
参与意愿
农户融资
二元Probit模型
rural households’co-guarantee
group lending
participating willingness:farmers’financing
the Binary Probit model
