摘要
当前,我国面临的恐怖主义威胁日益严峻。为防止境外恐怖分子潜入,政府可设计反恐阻止网络,通过在交通网络中有效地分配例如安检仪器、传感设备等阻断资源,来提前识别和拦截正在潜入的恐怖分子。特别地,考虑信息不对称情形,把阻断资源分为"公开"和"隐蔽"两种类型,并假设恐怖分子观察不到"隐蔽"阻断。主要研究政府应如何同时优化两类阻断方案,才能发挥信息优势,设置"陷阱"并降低袭击分析。首先,将该问题构造为双层规划模型,上层规划是关于政府的阻止网络设计问题,下层规划则是关于恐怖分子的袭击节点选择和入侵路径优化问题。随后,设计一类用改进遗传算法处理上层规划,并结合下层规划直接求解的混合算法。其中,改进体现于杂交算子和变异算子的设计。最后,结合喀什地区进行算例分析,并分析"隐蔽"阻断的作用机理。
Since September 11 and a series of terrorist attacks,terror has become a major threat in the world.In order to prevent the terrorists abroad from invading into our country and mitigate the attack risk,the government can design an effective interdiction network in the border area.A counter-terrorism interdiction network design problem is considered which is in essence a security resources allocation problem in a fixed transportation network.This problem consists of two decision stages:the first decision stage belongs to the government who decides the optimal allocation of both"unconcealed"and"concealed"security resource in part of roads.Here the"unconcealed"resource is like security checkpoints that can be observed,while the"concealed"resource can be sensors which can’t be observed directly.Both type of security resource can be used for reducing terrorist’s passing probability on the fortified road.The second stage refers to the terrorist.After only observing the"unconcealed"resource,the terrorist decides the best attack target and intrusion path to maximize her perceived attack risk.Thus,the government’s optimization problem is how to allocate both type of security resource in the network,such that the attack risk can be mitigate the most.According to the decision order,above problem is addressed as a bi-level programming model.The upper level problem is associated to the resource allocation problem of the government,and the lower level problem refers to terrorist’s target choosing and intrusion path optimization.In order to solve this model,a hybrid algorithm is proposed,where an improved genetic algorithm is used in the upper level problem for enumerating and updating interdict plans,and the an exact algorithm is designed for solving the lower level problem when the interdict plans are fixed.Our model is finally applied in a case study of Kashi area.The numerical results show that:(i)the hybrid algorithm can always find good quality solutions in a very short time.(ii)As both types of resources are alloc
作者
项寅
XIANG Yin(School of Business,University of Science and Technology of Suzhou,Suzhou 215009,China)
出处
《中国管理科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第9期188-198,共11页
Chinese Journal of Management Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71571114)。
关键词
反恐
阻止网络设计
双层规划
遗传算法
counter-terrorism
interdiction network design
bi-level programming
improved genetic algorithm
