摘要
本文根据中国1990-2017年的年度时间序列数据建立VAR模型,研究中国农村小额信贷与农民收入增长之间的关系。协整检验表明,中国农村小额信贷与农民收入增长之间存在长期均衡关系,中国农村小额信贷每增长一个百分点,农民收入将增长0.4972%。脉冲响应表明,中国农村小额信贷的一个正的冲击对农民收入产生一个比较平稳的正向影响;方差分解显示,第十期后农村小额信贷对农民收入的影响可占到农民收入预测误差的44.56%。同时格兰杰因果检验证实,中国农村小额信贷与农民收入之间的因果关系存在一个滞后期,在10%的显著性水平下,滞后1期和滞后2期中国农村信贷都不是农民收入增长的格兰杰原因,直到滞后3期才是农民收入增长的格兰杰原因。与此相联系,中国农民收入在滞后期内都成为农村小额信贷的格兰杰原因。最后文章提出了促进农民收入增长的建议。
Based on China’s annual time series data from 1990 to 2017,this paper establishes a VAR model to study the relationship between rural microfinance and farmers’income growth.Cointegration test shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between rural microfinance and farmers’income growth in China.Every percentage point of rural microfinance growth in China,farmers’income will increase by 0.4972%.Impulse response shows that a positive impact of rural microfinance in China has a relatively stable positive impact on farmers’income;variance decomposition shows that the impact of rural microfinance on farmers’income after the tenth period accounts for 44.56%of the prediction error of farmers’income.At the same time,Granger causality test confirmed that there is a lag period between rural microfinance and farmers’income in China.At the significant level of 10%,China’s rural credit is not the Granger cause of farmers’income growth,and it is not until the lag period 3 that the Granger cause of farmers’income growth.In connection with this,the income of Chinese farmers has become the Granger cause of rural microfinance in the lag period.Finally,the paper puts forward some suggestions to promote the growth of farmers’income.
作者
袁凯
秦亚冰
YUAN Kai;QIN Ya-bing(Department of Economics and Management,Bozhou University,Bozhou Anhui 236800,China)
出处
《湖北第二师范学院学报》
2020年第9期51-57,共7页
Journal of Hubei University of Education
