摘要
目的探讨最大空间和最大时间扫描窗口参数的选择。方法以荆州市2016年手足口病逐日发病数据为例,将最大空间扫描窗口设置为风险人口数的50%、40%、30%、20%、10%,最大时间扫描窗口设置为7d、14d、30d、60d,组成20种参数设置方案,逐一进行时空扫描。选择扫出聚集区域覆盖乡镇数<25个,且能同时探测出松滋市卸甲坪乡和监利县三洲镇的聚集性疫情,LLR值和RR值均较大的组合为最优参数设置。结果最大空间扫描窗口设为风险人口数20%,最大时间扫描窗口设置为30d时,共探测到6个聚集区,覆盖乡镇数均<25个,且成功探测到松滋市卸甲坪乡和监利县三洲镇的聚集性疫情,另外LLR值和RR值均较大,为最优参数设置。结论不同参数组合对时空扫描统计量结果产生显著影响,建议在应用该方法前先进行参数优化。
Objective To explore the optimal combination of parameters for the maximum spatial cluster size and maximum temporal cluster size of scan statistics.Methods The daily incidence data of hand-foot-and-mouth disease(HFMD)in Jingzhou in 2016 was collected as data source.The maximum spatial cluster sizes were set to 50%,40%,30%,20%,and 10%of the population at risk.The maximum temporal cluster sizes were set to 7d,14d,30d,and 60d.A total of 20 parameter setting schemes were formed and spatial-temporal scanning was conducted one by one.The areas where the number of towns covered by the scanning area was less than 25 were selected,and the clustered epidemic of hand-foot-mouth disease can be detected at the same time in Xiejiaping Town of Songzi City and Sanzhou Town of Jianli County.The combination of large LLR and RR values was the optimal parameter setting.Results When the spatial windows were set to 20%of the population at risk,and the temporal windows were set to 30d,a total of 6 aggregation areas were detected.The number of covered townships was less than 25,and the clustered epidemic of Xiejiaping Township and Sanzhou Town were successfully detected.The LLR and RR values of the detected aggregation area were relatively large.This combination was the optimal parameter setting.Conclusion The combination of different parameters has a significant impact on the results of spatial-temporal scan statistics.It is recommended that parameters be optimized before applying this method.
作者
刘天
姚梦雷
陈红缨
黄继贵
刘漫
刘红慧
王丽
梅芳盛
LIU Tian;YAO Menglei;CHEN Hongying;HUANG Jigui;LIU Man;LIU Honghui;WANG Li;MEI Fangsheng(Jingzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jingzhou,Hubei 434000,China;Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Wuhan,Hubei 430079,China)
出处
《公共卫生与预防医学》
2020年第5期49-52,共4页
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
基金
湖北省卫生计生委创新团队项目(WJ2016JT-002)。
关键词
时空扫描统计量
手足口病
参数筛选
SaTScan
Spatial-temporal scan statistics
Hand,foot and mouth disease
Parameter setting
SaTScan
