摘要
基于MF-VAR模型对货币政策与宏观经济关系进行的混频检验,并在定性描述和定量测度的基础上,运用SV-TVP-FAVAR模型对宏观经济调控效果进行的考察,结果表明:中国货币政策调控的取向变迁契合宏观经济的阶段性目标,定量测度与定性描述结论一致,且定量测度能够揭示调控取向的微弱变动趋势,具有信号指引功效;相同调控环境下的量价工具冲击特征类似,不存在冲击异质性;不同调控环境下的货币政策调控效果存在较大差异。央行应在不同经济时期,有区分地采用货币政策量价工具进行差异化宏观经济调控,最大化货币政策的宏观经济效应;应根据宏观经济的不同目标,充分发挥货币政策量价工具的调控效果及协调效应,实现宏观经济的长期稳定增长;应充分利用政策利率为主的价格型工具调控宏观经济运行,充分发挥价格型工具的预调微调功效,加强逆周期调节,引导中国经济迈向高质量发展。
On the basis of a mixed-frequency test with the MF-VAR model on the relationship between monetary policy and macroeconomics,this paper employs a SV-TVP-FAVAR model to examine the effects of macroeconomic regulation and control with qualitative description and quantitative measurement.The results show that the orientation transformation of monetary policy regulation conforms to the stage objectives of the macro economy,that the conclusion of the quantitative measurement is consistent with that of the qualitative description,and that the quantitative measurement can reveal the weak changing trend of the regulation orientation,which has certain signal guiding effect.The quantity-price instruments under the same regulatory environment have the similar shock characteristics,and there is no shock heterogeneity.The regulatory effects of monetary policy under different regulatory environment are quite different.The Central Bank should conduct differentiated macroeconomic regulation by discretely employing the quantity-price instrument of monetary policy at different economic period,maximizing the macroeconomic effects of the monetary policy;it should give full play to the regulatory effects and the coordination effects of the quantity-price instrument of the monetary policy in accordance with the different objects of the macro economy,so as to achieve the long-term steady growth of the macro economy;and it should fully utilize the pricy-type instrument,primarily policy interest rate,to regulate macroeconomic operations,give full play to the pre-adjustment and fine-tuning effects of price-type instruments,and strengthen the counter-cyclical adjustment,so as to guide China’s economy to a high quality development.
作者
张龙
姜龙
ZHANG Long;JIANG Long(Jilin University of Finance and Economics,Changchun 130117;Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)
出处
《当代财经》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第9期52-65,共14页
Contemporary Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“低利率环境下货币政策效应检验及新时期货币政策调控模式选择研究”(19BJY016)。
关键词
货币政策
调控取向
量价转型
拟合效果
monetary policy
regulatory orientation
quantity-price transformation
imitative effect
