摘要
房地产业泡沫影响房地产市场健康发展,对房地产市场泡沫的研究以及提出抑制策略具有现实意义.研究综合使用GSADF、BSADF模型,构建了区域性房地产市场泡沫的检测模型,并以厦门市为例,检验房地产市场价格指数的泡沫存在性及生灭时间点.研究发现基于GSADF、BSADF组合的房地产市场泡沫测量模型能够较为准确的测定泡沫的存在性、泡沫生灭的时间点以及泡沫的严重程度.实证结论得出:厦门市新建商品住宅市场共出现五次泡沫,第四次泡沫(2015.10-2016.09)持续时间最长且最严重;厦门市二手住宅市场共出现三次泡沫,第二次泡沫(2016.02-2016.06)程度最严重.鉴于此,厦门市应加强土地资源管理,完善住房供给体系,实行稳健调控措施,严控房地产市场的各类资本,预防并减缓泡沫.
The real estate bubble influences the healthy development of the real estate market,and it is very important to study the real estate market bubble and put forward the control strategy.The GSADF and BSADF models were comprehensive used to construct the measurement model for testing the existence of the bubbles and its birth-death time for the regional real estate market,and Xiamen was taken as an example.The study found that the measurement model based on the combination of GSADF and BSADF could accurately test the existence,time point and severity of bubbles.The empirical results show that there were five bubbles in Xiamen’s new commercial housing market,and the fourth bubble(2015.10-2016.09)lasted the longest and was the most serious.There were three bubbles in the secondhand residential market in Xiamen,and the second bubble(2016.02-2016.06)was the most serious.In view of this,Xiamen government should strengthen the management of land resources,improve the housing supply system,implement prudent regulation measures,strictly control all kinds of capital in the real estate market,prevent and mitigate bubbles.
作者
袁亚蕊
祁神军
YUAN Ya-rui;QI Shen-jun(Chinasoft International Internet School,Chengyi University College,Jimei University,Xiamen 361021,China;College of Civil Engineering,Huaqiao University,Xiamen 361021,China)
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2020年第18期76-83,共8页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
