摘要
基于2001-2014年浙江北部海域三疣梭子蟹自然补充资源量和主要海洋灾害因子数据,运用广义可加模型(general additive model,GAM),分析两者之间的关系。筛选出影响三疣梭子蟹补充资源量的主要灾害因子包括赤潮、台风、海面高度距平等。选用2001-2014年的数据(其中,随机剔除2002、2005、2008、2010和2012年的数据,用于模型验证),建立多元线性和非线性预测方程。结果显示:2个方程在拟合梭子蟹自然补充资源量过程中存在显著性差异。线性拟合模型最大相对误差达到41%,其中2005-2011年之间自然补充资源量拟合值与观测值呈现相反趋势。非线性拟合模型中,最大相对误差为29.3%,2005-2009年之间自然补充资源量拟合值与观测值之间虽有不同步的趋势,但差异程度不大。相对而言,非线性拟合模型较线性拟合模型拟合效果较好。该研究旨在分析浙江北部海域三疣梭子蟹自然补充资源量与海洋灾害因子之间的关系,建立起三疣梭子蟹补充资源量预测模型。
Based on the data of natural recritment of Portunus trituberculatus and the main marine disaster factors in the northern Zhejiang during 2001-2014,the relationship between them was analyzed using a general additive model(GAM).The main disaster factors considered here that might affect the recruitment of P.trituberculatus including the red tide,typhoon,and sea surface height.Data from 2001 to 2014(data for 2002,2005,2008,2010,and 2012 were randomly excluded for later model validation),were used to establish multivariate linear and nonlinear prediction equations.The results showed that there are significant differences between the two equations in fitting the natural recruitment of P.trituberculatus.The maximum relative error for the linear fitting equation reached to 41%.The fitting results of natural recruitment from 2005 to 2011 presented an opposite trend to the observed result.For the non-linear fitting equation,the maximum relative error is 29.3%.Between 2005 and 2009,the estimated value of the natural recruitmen is not in step with the observed value,but the degree of difference is not significant.Relatively speaking,the fitting result of the nonlinear equaiton is better than that of the linear equaiton.The purpose of this study was to analyze the relationship between the recruitment of P.trituberculatus and major marine disaster factors in the northern Zhejiang sea area,and to establish a predictive model of the recruitment of P.trituberculatus.
作者
王迎宾
高丽
孙洁
WANG Ying-bin;GAO Li;SUN Jie(School of Fisheries of Zhejiang Ocean University,Zhoushan 316022,China)
出处
《浙江海洋大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2020年第2期129-136,共8页
Journal of Zhejiang Ocean University：Natural Science
基金
国家重点研究发展计划(2017YFA0604902)
舟山市科技局项目(2017C41012)。
