摘要
基于技术创新扩散传播和驱动的双重视角,研究了技术创新扩散的动力机制并提出相应的测度方法。首先,围绕创新主体和创新客体基于技术创新扩散方式的视角提出了技术创新扩散传播机制,并应用Bass模型对其传播机制进行测度;围绕创新主体、创新客体和创新中介,基于技术创新扩散驱动要素的视角,提出了技术创新扩散的驱动机制,并应用空间计量模型对其驱动机制进行测度。其次,运用2001-2018年中国5类城市(288个地级以上城市)的ICT数据对其创新扩散传播机制和驱动机制进行实证分析。研究发现:Bass模型能够有效测度5类城市ICT创新扩散的传播机制,且5类城市之间存在显著差异;面板数据固定效应动态SAR模型能够更全面测度5类城市ICT创新扩散驱动机制,时间、空间和时空滞后效应驱动显著,同时从宏观、中观和微观等视角测度并分析了对5类城市的驱动效果,得出一系列有价值的研究结论。
From the dual perspectives of spread and driving mechanism of technological innovation diffusion,the dynamic mechanism of it was studied and the corresponding measurement method was proposed.Firstly,the spread mechanism of technological innovation diffusion was put forward from the perspective of the spread based on innovation subject and innovation object,and its spread mechanism was measured by Bass model.The driving mechanism of it was brought up from the perspective of the driving factors based on the innovation subject,the innovation object and the innovation intermediary,and the driving mechanism was measured by the spatial econometric model.Secondly,the ICT data of five classificatory cities(288 cities above the prefecture level)in China from 2001 to 2018 was used to conduct an empirical analysis on the spread mechanism and driving mechanism.The results show as follows.Bass model can effectively measure the spread mechanism of ICT innovation diffusion in five types of cities,and there are significant differences among them.The fixed-effect dynamic SAR model of panel data can more comprehensively measure the driving mechanism of ICT innovation diffusion in five types of cities.The driving effect of time,space and space-time is significant.Meanwhile,the driving effect of five kinds of cities is measured and analyzed from the perspectives of macro,meso and micro,and a series of valuable research conclusions are drawn.
作者
胡文玉
王文举
刘用
Hu Wenyu;Wang Wenju;Liu Yong(School of Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China;School of Economics,Beijing Wuzi University,Beijing 101100,China;China Harbour Engineering Company Ltd.,Beijing 100027,China)
出处
《技术经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第9期89-100,共12页
Journal of Technology Economics
关键词
技术创新
创新扩散
动力机制
BASS模型
空间计量
ICT
technology innovation
innovation spread
dynamic mechanism
Bass model
spatial econometric
ICT
