摘要
人口对经济增长的影响机制是十分复杂的,历史上也经历了不同的认识阶段。在近几十年中,越来越多的学者逐渐对人口红利形成了共识,即一个国家在特定阶段上的人口结构而非人口总量确实对经济增长产生额外的“好处”。然而,“人口红利”似乎并没有在所有国家中出现,以至于人们对“人口红利”的真实性产生质疑。为此,本文给出了实现“人口红利”的充分和必要条件,并以经验数据为基础,找出历史上曾经出现过“人口红利”的国家。通过研究发现,仅有那些总和生育率能够在代际之间快速下降的国家才能获得实际意义上的“人口红利机会窗口”,同时也只有配合适当的政策措施,才能使“机会窗口期”内的潜在增长转变为实际增长,从而获得实际的“人口红利”。最终我们提出了一个判定“人口红利机会窗口”的定量标准,并回答了“人口红利”看似主要出现在亚洲的原因。
The dynamics of population growth on economic growth is very complex,and related theoretical discussions have undergone multiple rounds of debate in literature.In recent decades,scholars have gradually reached a consensus over the concept of‘demographic dividend’,that is,a population's age structure,rather than its total amount,does offer additional benefit for economic growth.However,demographic dividend is also being questioned mainly because it does not appear in all countries.Based on empirical data from countries that have benefitted with demographic dividend,this paper classifies the sufficient and necessary conditions for demographic dividend.We find that only for countries with a rapid decline in TFR could the dividend be possible,and only combined with appropriate policy implementation could the real“demographic dividend”become obtainable.Finally,we delineate a quantitative threshold for the dividend to emerge and explain why the dividend occurs mainly in Asian countries.
作者
陆旸
Lu Yang(Institute of Population and Labor Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
出处
《劳动经济研究》
CSSCI
2020年第3期3-31,共29页
Studies in Labor Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“人口结构变化对中国经济减速的影响和对策研究”(15BJL012)资助。
关键词
人口转型
人口红利
总和生育率
经济增长
demographic change
demographic dividend
total fertility rate
economic growth
