摘要
在新一轮科技革命冲击下,新的国际产业分工格局正在形成。作为一个迅速崛起的大国,继续寄希望于通过传统产业改造升级来维持其世界领先的生产和出口规模已不现实,中国再次来到了产业战略调整的“十字路口”。本文在Helpman、Melitz和Yeaple(2004)的基础上引入异质性企业技术水平分布信息,刻画了企业再分配效应与政府研发支出挤出(挤入)效应通过影响传统产业与先进产业进而决定潜在产出的作用机理。本文依据国家高新技术产业认定办法,将相关企业有效区分为先进企业与传统企业,在省级层面上加总企业数据以反映传统产业与先进产业的动态变化。本文证明:专注于传统产业技术升级的政府研发投入对先进产业的挤出效应大于传统产业内企业再配置效应,不利于长期增长;专注于培育先进产业的政府研发投入则可通过先进产业挤入效应和企业再配置效应的共同作用,缩小实际产出和潜在产出的缺口,实现经济长期增长。新时期中国产业战略的重心应是加快培育先进产业、推动产业结构高级化,在新的国际产业分工格局中抢占制高点,为经济持续稳定增长提供强有力的产业支撑。
Under the impact of a new round of technological revolution,a new pattern of international industrial division of labor is taking shape.As a rapidly rising power,it is unrealistic for China to maintain its status as a world-leading producer and exporter by continuing to rely on the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries.Based on Helpman et al.(2004),this paper introduces the information of technology distribution of enterprises,and describes the mechanism of enterprise redistribution effect and government R&D expenditure crowding-out/in effect to determine potential output by influencing traditional and advanced industries.In this paper,the enterprises are effectively divided into advanced enterprises and traditional enterprises according to the national high and new technology industry identification method,and the enterprise data are aggregated at the provincial level to reflect the dynamic changes in traditional and advanced industries.This paper proves that the crowding-out effect of government R&D investment focusing on technological upgrading of traditional industries will be greater than the redistribution effect of enterprises in traditional industries,which is not conducive to long-term growth;government R&D investment focusing on cultivating advanced industries can narrow the gap between actual output and potential output and achieve long-term economic growth through the crowding-in effect of advanced industries and enterprise redistribution effect.The focus of China's industrial strategy in the new era should be to accelerate the cultivation of advanced industries,promote the upgrading of industrial structure,seize the commanding heights in the new international industrial division of labor,and provide strong industrial support for sustained and stable economic growth.
作者
孙早
许薛璐
SUN Zao;XU Xuelu(Xi'an Jiaotong University,710061)
出处
《财贸经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第9期117-130,共14页
Finance & Trade Economics
关键词
传统产业
先进产业
潜在产出
产业战略
Traditional Industries
Advanced Industries
Potential Output
Industrial Strategy
