摘要
为探讨西吉县近67 a降水变化特征,以1952-2018年降水数据为基础,采用Mann-Kendall分析,线性回归方程,滑动t检验,累积距平曲线,小波变化等多种方法对降水变化趋势、突变性和周期性进行分析。结果表明:西吉县年平均降水量为408.2 mm,年际变化与年内变化均有较大波动,旱涝灾害并存;除冬季外其他各时段降水量均有缓慢的下降趋势;在此时间序列中发生多次突变,其中1968年的突变较为显著;降水量有3个变化周期,分别是42 a的第1主周期,8 a的第2主周期和21 a的次周期。西吉县的降水量基本保持稳定,但仍须注意防范水旱灾害。
To describe the precipitation variation characteristics of Xiji County in recent 67 years,Mann-Kendall analysis,linear regression equation,sliding t-test,cumulative levelling curve,wavelet change analysis methods are used.According to the precipitation data of Xiji County from 1952 to 2018,the variation trend,mutation and periodicity are analyzed.The results show that annual average precipitation of Xiji is 408.2 mm,and the inter-annual and intra-annual changes are highly fluctuating.Droughts and floods are coexistent.The precipitation in all other seasons show a downward trend except in winter.There are multiple mutations in this time series,and the mutation in 1968 is the most significant.There are three change cycles of precipitation:the first main cycle is 42 years,the second main cycle is 8 years,and the second sub-cycle is 21 years.It shows that the precipitation in Xiji County will remain stable in the future.However,as a city dominated by agricultural economy,relevant sectors should pay attention to preventing disasters caused by extreme precipitation.
作者
王充
李超超
申若竹
李金燕
WANG Chong;LI Chao-chao;SHEN Ruo-zhu;LI Jin-yan(School of Civil Engineering and Hydraulic Engineering, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, China;Beijing Capital Co., Ltd, Beijing 100044,China)
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2020年第9期152-156,162,共6页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
国家自然科学青年基金项目(51809143)
国家自然科学基金项目(51569024)
宁夏回族自治区重点研发计划重大(重点)项目(2018BEG02010)。
关键词
降水量
变化特征
趋势分析
突变分析
周期分析
precipitation
variation characteristics
trend analysis
abrupt change analysis
period analysis
