摘要
利用漩涡模型(Vortex 10.3.7.0)对大刺鳅种群的生存力进行了分析。结果发现:当环境容纳量为100尾、初始尾数为20尾时,在10种不同情景下,大刺鳅种群在100年内的内禀增长率r为4.8429~5.0412,周限增长率λ为129.8331~154.6608,平均世代时间为7.11~7.21年,平均现存种群数量为55.55~90.49尾,平均种群数量为28.82~90.16尾,遗传多样性为0.6346~0.7778,灭绝概率为0.0037~0.4818,平均首次灭绝时间为25.5~51.8年;在情景1、2和3下,当环境容纳量为300尾时,大刺鳅种群的MVP分别为117、50和33尾;在情景4~10下,当环境容纳量为100尾时,其MVP为39~11尾。结合历史文献和实际调查结果认为,在自然情况下0~1年龄组大刺鳅种群的死亡率接近70%,性成熟雌鳅的生殖率接近35%;在此情景下,设定环境容纳量为300尾、初始尾数为50尾,则该种群的灭绝概率为0.0549。
Vortex 10.3.7.0 was used to analyze the viability of Mastacembelus armatus.The results showed that under 10 different scenarios,when the environmental capacity was 100 tails and the initial population size was 20 tails,the r of the population was 4.8429~5.0412.Theλwas 129.8331~154.6608.The average generation was 7.11~7.21.The average extant population size was 55.55~90.49,and the average population size was 28.82~90.16.The genetic diversity was 0.6346~0.7778.The probability of extinction was 0.0037~0.4818,and the mean first extinction time(years)was 25.5~51.8.Scenarios 1,2,and 3 had 117 MVPS,50 MVPS,and 33 MVPS,respectively,when the environmental capacity was 300.Scenarios 4~10 had MVPS of 39~11,respectively,when the environment accommodated 100 tails.According to literature and actual investigation,under natural conditions,the mortality rate of 0~1 age group was close to 70%,and the reproductive rate of sexually mature female was close to 35%.In this context,the extinction probability of the population is 0.0549 when the environmental tolerance is set as 300 tails and the initial manes are set as 50 tails.
作者
吴斌
王海华
曾庆祥
马本贺
徐先栋
WU Bin;WANG Hai-hua;ZENG Qing-xiang;MA Ben-he;XU Xian-dong(Jiangxi Fisheries Research Institute,Nanchang 330039,China;Ganzhou Fisheries Research Institute in Jiangxi Province,Ganzhou 341000,China)
出处
《江西农业学报》
CAS
2020年第9期107-112,共6页
Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(31972795)
江西省重点研发计划项目(20171ACF60012)
江西省现代农业产业技术体系建设专项(JXARS-10)。
关键词
大刺鳅
种群生存力
漩涡模型
死亡率
生殖率
Mastacembelus armatus
Population viability
Vortex model
Mortality rate
Reproductive rate
