摘要
随着中国LNG资源供应逐渐过剩,LNG市场出现独立于管道气发展的趋势。LNG接收站与天然气液化厂的竞争逐渐加剧,接收站外输LNG竞争力持续增强,将逐渐成为中国LNG资源最主要的供应渠道,天然气液化厂的供应半径将逐渐被压缩,竞争力持续减弱。LNG在天然气汽车和调峰方面具有一定的发展空间,“十四五”期间,中国LNG市场仍将保持5%~10%的年均增速。LNG下游用户逐渐多元化,逐渐从单一加气站向加气站、城市燃气和工业用户“三分天下”转变,下游用户的用气特性也将随之改变。在市场化定价趋势下,LNG与管道气合同外的气量价格联动关系将得到加强。未来,应充分发挥LNG的供应特点和优势,结合“一带一路”倡议及海洋经济发展方向,对中国现有的LNG产业模式和开拓目标进行调整。
With the gradual oversupply of LNG resources in China,the LNG market shows a trend of becoming independent of pipeline gas development.The competition between LNG receiving stations and natural gas liquefaction plants is gradually fiercer,the competitiveness of LNG transportation from receiving stations continues to increase,and it will gradually become the most important supply channel for China’s LNG resources.The supply of natural gas liquefaction plants will gradually be compressed and the production load will be gradually reduced.LNG has room for development in natural gas vehicles and peak shaving and China’s LNG market will still maintain an average annual growth rate of 5%to 10%during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.With the gradual diversification of LNG downstream users,LNG users will gradually shift from a single gas station to a“three-part world”of gas stations,city gas and industrial users,and the gas consumption characteristics of downstream users will also change accordingly.Under the market-based pricing trend,the linkage relationship between LNG and the price of pipeline gas outside the contract will be strengthened.In the future,we should make full use of LNG’s own supply characteristics and advantages and adjust China’s existing LNG industry model and development goals combined with the Belt and Road Initiative and the direction of marine economic development.
作者
王伟明
WANG Weiming(Sinopec Gas Company)
出处
《国际石油经济》
2020年第9期65-71,共7页
International Petroleum Economics
关键词
LNG接收站
天然气液化厂
管道天然气
市场化
价格
LNG terminal
natural gas liquefaction plant
pipeline natural gas
marketization
price
