摘要
利用我国A股2012-2018年上市公司数据,探讨上市公司业绩预告偏差与偏离方向如何影响股价崩盘风险,以及内部控制质量对两者的调节作用。研究发现:公司业绩预告偏差与股价崩盘风险显著正相关;与悲观偏差相比,业绩预告乐观偏差才会加剧股价崩盘风险,高质量的内部控制能够缓解业绩预告乐观偏差加剧的股价崩盘风险。进一步研究发现,当上市公司业绩预告需要强制披露、披露越及时及披露坏消息时,内部控制质量的调节作用更加显著。由此证明,高质量内部控制在缓解因业绩预告乐观偏差加剧的股价崩盘风险中发挥重要作用。
Using the data of A-share listed companies from 2012 to 2017 in China,this paper examines how the bias of earnings forecast of listed companies and the direction of bias affect the stock price crash risk,and the moderating effect of the effectiveness of internal control between the two.The results show that the bias of earnings forecast has a significant positive correlation with the stock price crash risk,and compared with pessimistic bias,optimistic bias will only exacerbate the stock price crash risk.Further research found that high-quality internal control can alleviate the stock price crash risk caused by optimistic bias of earnings forecast,and that if the optimistic bias of performance forecast of listed companies requires mandatory disclosure,the more timely the disclosure of information and the bad news,the greater is the role internal control quality plays in regulating the risk.The research shows that the way of performance forecast will have different effects on the stock price crash risk.Internal control plays an important role in mitigating stock price crash risk caused by the bias of earnings forecast.
作者
宫义飞
夏艳春
罗开心
王艳
GONG Yifei;XIA Yanchun;LUO Kaixin;WANG Yan(College of Economics and Management of Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China;College of Economics and Business Administration of Chongqing University,Chongqing 400044,China;Micro Net Communication Co.,Ltd,Chongqing 401123,China)
出处
《财经理论与实践》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第5期53-60,共8页
The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics
基金
重庆市社会科学规划培育项目(2016PY42)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(SWU1909314)。