摘要
本文评估了20世纪中叶以来全球和中国海洋气候驱动因子(致灾因子)的变化及其对中国海洋和海岸带的影响和风险。结果表明:①自20世纪中叶以来,海洋升温、海平面上升、台风-风暴潮,以及海洋热浪等海洋气候致灾因子的危险性(强度、频率和范围等)显著增加。②海洋升温引起海洋物候的显著变迁,导致中国海洋物种组成和地理分布发生变化,以及赤潮、绿潮和大型水母暴发性增殖等生态灾害频繁发生;中国沿海海平面持续上升对红树林和河口等滨海湿地典型生境造成威胁,频繁的海洋热浪引起热带珊瑚加速退化并屡屡造成海水养殖业的重大损失。③近几十年来,大规模围填海、污染物排放和过度渔业捕捞等人类活动增加了中国海洋和海岸带生态系统的暴露度和脆弱性,加剧中国滨海湿地面积的减少、湿地生境的退化、生物多样性和生态系统稳定性的下降,导致中国近海重要海洋渔业经济种类的低龄化、小型化,以及渔业资源的严重衰退。④海平面的上升还加大了海岸侵蚀、海水入侵与河口区咸潮入侵的影响,以及台风-风暴潮对沿海地区的洪涝灾害影响和对沿海经济社会造成的损失。⑤未来不同气候情景下(温室气体从低排放到高排放情景,RCP2.6,4.5和8.5),到21世纪末,中国海洋温度和海平面将有大幅度上升,可能成为全球海洋变化最为显著的区域之一,沿海许多地区当前百年一遇的极值水位事件将变为几年一遇甚至低于一年一遇(RCP8.5),沿海地区很可能面临更严重的灾害风险。为此,本文进一步分析并讨论了中国海洋和海岸带地区应对气候变化的若干适应对策措施以及不确定性问题,以期为保障中国沿海地区经济社会的可持续发展提供科学参考。
This article provides an assessment of global marine climate change and that of China’s since the mid-20th century,including changes in marine climate drivers(hazards)and their impact and risks on the coastal China zones and seas.The results show that:①Marine climate drivers,such as ocean warming,sea level rise,typhoon-storm surge and marine heat waves,have increased significantly in strength,frequency and range over the past decades.②Ocean warming has caused substantial changes in marine phenology,species composition,geographical distribution,and frequent occurrences of ecological disasters such as red tides,green tides,and macro-jellyfish outbreaks,while marine heat waves have induced tropical coral degradation and major losses in the marine aquaculture industry in the coastal China seas.③Sea level rise threatens the typical habitats of coastal wetlands such as mangrove and estuaries,and exacerbates coastal erosion,seawater intrusion and the impact of typhoon-storm surge on the coastal flood disasters.④Human activities,such as large-scale reclamation,pollutant discharge,and overfishing,have exacerbated the exposure and vulnerability of China’s marine and coastal ecosystems,leading to the low-aging and miniaturization of fishery types,decline of offshore fishery resources,reduction of coastal wetland areas,and degradation of biodiversity and ecosystem stability.⑤Under different future climate scenarios such as low greenhouse gas emission scenario(RCP 2.6)and high greenhouse gas emission scenario(RCP 8.5),as the warming and sea level rise in the coastal China seas continue,extreme sea level(ESL)events will occur more frequently,e.g.,by the end of this century,the current once per century ESL events will become annually or even annually less(RCP 8.5)in many coastal areas,such as at Lüsi and Xiamen tidal gauge stations;and the ESL events could pose serious risks on the coastal areas.Finally,the article further discusses the adaptation measures and related uncertain issues to address climate change in
作者
蔡榕硕
刘克修
谭红建
CAI Rong-shuo;LIU Ke-xiu;TAN Hong-jian(Third Institute of Oceanography,Ministry of Natural Resources,Xiamen Fujian 361005,China;National Marine Data&Infomnation Service,Tianjin 300171,China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第9期1-8,共8页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家重点研发计划“全球变化及应对”重点专项资助项目“海岸带和沿海地区全球变化综合风险研究——海岸带和沿海地区综合风险评估关键技术研究”(批准号:2017YFA0604903)
“海岸带和沿海地区全球变化综合风险研究——海岸带和沿海地区对海平面变化、极端气候事件的响应及脆弱性研究”(批准号:2017YFA0604902)
科学技术部《第四次气候变化国家评估报告》编制工作专项。
关键词
气候变化
海洋
海岸带
灾害风险
适应措施
climate change
ocean
coastal zone
disaster risk
adaptation measure
