摘要
为对塔城地区的干旱评估和灾害防治工作提供理论依据,选取1984—2016年塔城地区月降水量数据,利用SPI3和SPI12指数,结合集合经验模态分解(EEMD)方法,探讨研究区近33 a年际和季节降水及干旱周期振荡变化特征。结果表明:①研究区降水量呈增加趋势,且降水主要集中在春末和夏季;②研究区年际干旱从1984年开始呈逐渐减弱的趋势,以3.30 a周期振荡变化为主;③季节干旱多尺度特性具有一定的差异性,其中春季和夏季均以2000年为临界点,干旱由增加变为减弱趋势,分别以3.67 a、4.71 a的周期为主;秋季干旱从1984年开始呈逐渐减弱的趋势,变化周期以4.13 a为主。
It provides a theoretical basis for better drought assessment and disaster prevention in Tacheng area.In this paper,the monthly precipitation data of Tacheng area from 1984 to 2016 were selected,and the oscillation characteristics of drought cycle in recent 33 years in the study area were discussed by using SPI3 and SPI12 combined with the method of EEMD.The results showed that:(1)The precipitation in the study area showed an increasing trend,and the precipitation mainly concentrated in the end of spring and summer.(2)The inter-annual drought in the study area had been gradually weakened since 1984,and the main change was the 3.30-year periodic oscillation.(3)The multi-scale characteristics of seasonal drought had certain differences,in which the critical point was 2000 in spring and summer,and the drought tends to decrease from increase to decrease,mainly in the periods of 3.67 years and 4.71 years,respectively;in autumn,the drought tended to weaken from 1984,mainly in the periods of 4.13 years.
作者
孙亚兴
SUN Yaxing(Changyuan Water Science Research Institute(Co.,Ltd),Urumqi 830000,China)
出处
《广东水利水电》
2020年第9期101-104,共4页
Guangdong Water Resources and Hydropower
