摘要
气候变化导致全球热浪灾害事件频发。湿球黑球温度综合考虑了温度和湿度协同作用,相较于单独的温度指标更能表征热浪对人类社会的影响。基于该指数定义热浪,利用CMIP5多模式温度和相对湿度模拟数据以及SSP3人口数据,量化并分析了未来全球及区域尺度热浪的人口暴露度变化以及造成暴露度变化的各因素的贡献率。结果表明:(1)过去(1986-2005年)暴露度的分布主要受人口分布的影响,印度次大陆以及中国东部、东南沿海地区是暴露度高值区,未来(2081-2100年)热带地区暴露度的增加尤为明显;(2)全球区域间暴露度变化差异显著,未来南亚地区平均暴露度的增幅最大,接近3×10^4万人·d,而澳大利亚北部、亚洲北部、加拿大地区平均暴露度的增幅不足100万人·d;(3)气候和人口因素共同作用是造成绝大多数热带地区暴露度变化的最主要原因,而对于中高纬度地区来说,气候要素的贡献率最大;(4)气候和人口因素共同作用对全球暴露度变化的贡献占据主导地位。
Climate changes have contributed to increasing heatwaves all over the world.Wet bulb globe temperature,is a combined measure of temperature and humidity effects on the thermal condition.Thus it is a better indicator of the impact of heatwaves on humans than temperatures alone,and used to define heatwaves in this study.Utilizing simulated daily mean surface temperature and relative humidity from climate models participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5)and spatially explicit population projection from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP),we estimate change in future population exposure to heat waves taking account of both climate and population factors.Results show that during the historical period(1986-2005),geographic variations in exposure are generally a function of population and tend to be the highest in the Indian subcontinent,east and southeast of China.During the 2081-2100 period,exposure remains high in these regions,however substantial portions of the globe are expected to have large increases,particularly across the tropical regions.Significant differences exist in exposure change among different regions.South Asia is projected to have the largest annual mean exposure increase of approaching 300 million person-days,but in North Australia,North Asia and Canada,the increase is less than 1 million person-days.For the vast majority of tropical regions,the combined effect contributes to total change in exposure most prominently.But the climate effect is the most important factor for the middle and high latitudes.At the global level,the combined effect is the most prominent contributor to overall change in exposure.
作者
陈曦
李宁
张正涛
刘佳伟
王芳
CHEN Xi;LI Ning;ZHANG Zheng-Tao;LIU Jia-Wei;WANG Fang(Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster,Ministry of Education,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education&Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC),Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)
出处
《气候变化研究进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第4期424-432,共9页
Climate Change Research
基金
国家重点研发计划重点专项课题(2016YFA0602403)
国家自然科学基金(41775103,4190739)
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0906,2019QZKK0606)。
关键词
热浪灾害
湿球黑球温度
人口暴露度
全球
预估
Heatwaves
Wet bulb globe temperature
Population exposure
Global
Projections
