摘要
文章利用1999-2018年中美两国贸易数据和美国来华游客数量,分析中美贸易摩擦对美国来华入境旅游的影响,并探讨不同贸易水平下未来五年美国来华游客数量的变化。本研究将中美两国间的贸易数据细分为对美货物贸易进口、对美货物贸易出口、对美服务贸易进口和对美服务贸易出口四组数据,利用格兰杰因果检验,判断该四组贸易数据与美国来华游客数量之间的因果关系。在此基础上,利用广义线性模型的贝叶斯估计初步预测了不同贸易水平下未来五年美国来华游客数量的变化。研究表明,中美两国间的货物贸易进出口对美国来华游客数量的影响较小,无法构成格兰杰因果关系,而对美的服务贸易出口才是影响美国来华游客数量最大的贸易因素,这与当前学界的研究结论有差别。预测结果显示,若当前贸易摩擦扩大至服务贸易领域,将抑制美国来华游客数量的增长,甚至引发入境游客数量的下降。文章在实证与预测的基础上探讨了研究结论并提出相关对策。
The trade conflicts between China and the United States have caused global concern.The scholars generally believe that international trade has great correlation related to inbound tourism,and they concern whether the trade conflicts between China and the United States have an effect on the American Tourists to China.Based on the number of U.S.tourists to China and the trade data between China and the United States from 1999 to 2018,this paper analyzes the influence of trade conflicts between China and the United States on American Tourists to China,and discusses the variations of U.S.tourists to China over the next five years at the different trade volume.This paper divides the trade between China and the United States into four parts:import of goods to the United States,export of goods to the United States,import of services to the United States and export of services to the United States,and estimates the causal relations between the four sets of trade data and the tourists to the United States through the Granger causality test.On this basis,this paper also forecasts the variations of U.S.tourists to China over the next five years at the different trade volume through the Bayesian Generalized Linear Model.The study indicates that,the import and export of goods trade between China and the United States has little impact on the U.S.tourists to China which cannot form the Granger causality,whereas the export of services to the United States is the most important trade factors which affect the U.S.tourists to China.That is different from the current research conclusions in academic circles.Based on the research results,the following suggestions are proposed by this paper:Firstly,although the impacts of the trade conflicts are appeared directly in trade in goods between China and the United States,and the trade in goods between China and the United States has little correlation with inbound tourism to the United States,we still should not underestimate the indirect impact on the inbound tourism market of China.We m
作者
王瑜铬
任磊
Wang Yuge;Ren Lei(Tourism Management Department,Tourism College of Zhejiang,Hangzhou 311231;Hangzhou Yanwei Technology Co.,Ltd,Hangzhou 310017,China)
出处
《旅游论坛》
2020年第4期62-72,共11页
Tourism Forum
基金
浙江省教育厅一般科研项目“贸易战对浙江旅游经济的影响及对策研究”(Y201838990)
浙江旅游职业学院高层次培育课题“国际贸易摩擦对沿海地区入境旅游的影响及其传导效应研究”(2019GCC06)。
关键词
贸易摩擦
入境旅游
中美贸易
来华游客
trade conflict
inbound tourism
Sino-US trade
inbound tourists
