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基于累积前景理论的通勤者出行方式选择 被引量:7

Commuter travel mode selection based on cumulative prospect theory
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摘要 为研究通勤者在不确定环境下对出行方式的选择,依据通勤者在出行方式选择中的思维习惯,引入行程时间和行程费用两个参照点,基于累积前景理论,对两个参照点的累积前景值进行规范化。考虑指标权重给出综合累积前景值,建立出行方式的选择模型。通过仿真算例,分析各自前景值和综合前景值的变化规律,以及参照点的变化对通勤者出行方式的影响。研究表明:考虑两个参考点的累积前景理论模型能够较好地描述通勤者对出行方式的选择行为;相比行程费用,行程时间对通勤者出行方式选择的影响较大;对于中等出行距离,地铁更接近通勤者的心理预期,与大中型城市的出行现象相符合。 In order to study the commuters’choice in the uncertain environment,two reference points of travel time and travel cost were introduced according to the habits of commuters in the travel mode choice.Based on the cumulative prospect theory,the cumulative prospect value(CPV)of two reference points were normalized,the Comprehensive CPV was given by considering the index weight and the travel model selection model was established.Through an example,the variation law of respective and comprehensive CPV and the impact of changes in reference points on commuter travel modes were analyzed.The research shows that the cumulative prospect theoretical model considering two reference points can greatly describe the choice behavior of commuters in the way.Compared with travel cost,travel time has a greater impact on the choice of commuter travel modes.For medium travel distances,the subway is closer to the commuters’psychological expectations and this way is consistent with the travel of large and medium-sized cities.
作者 姚兰 YAO Lan(School of Traffic and Transportation,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China)
出处 《交通科技与经济》 2020年第5期33-38,共6页 Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications
关键词 城市交通 出行方式选择 累积前景理论 参考点 通勤者 urban traffic travel mode selection cumulative prospect theory reference point commuter
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