摘要
本文以新三板为例探讨成长型企业的估值。新三板的流动性低且交易量小,传统的估值模型可能因数据缺少而受限,本文对比分析了传统估值模型、PFM模型和基于PFM的实物期权模型,并且考虑了非财务信息对于企业价值的影响。基于2016年和2017年的新三板数据,本文通过倾向得分匹配方法(Propensity Score Matching)得到A股同行业可比上市公司,使用可比公司的波动率、PE和PS模型估值乘数代入模型对新三板企业股权价值做评估,比较各模型对于市场价格的解释效力。本文通过文本分析等方法构建非财务信息变量,控制并分析企业非财务信息的影响。结果显示:相较于传统的相对估值模型,PFM模型和基于PFM的实物期权模型对于成长型企业的估值具有较好的适用性和稳定性,并且非财务信息对企业的股权价值具有影响,在成长型企业估值中还需要考虑企业的战略布局等非财务因素。
This paper takes the new third board as an example to discuss the valuation of growing companies.Constrained to low liquidity and trading volume,the applicability of the traditional valuation model may be limited.This paper compares the traditional model,PFM and PFM-based real option model with consideration of non-financial information.Based on new third board's company data in 2016 and 2017,by PSM(propensity score matching)this paper obtains the comparable A-share listed companies'volatility,PE and PS model multipliers to evaluate the equity value and compare the results with the market price.This paper also constructs non-financial information variables by text analysis.The results show that PFM model and PFM-based real option model have better applicability and stability than traditional model,and company's non-financial information has an impact on the value of enterprises.Therefore,non-financial information also needs to be considered in growing enterprises'valuation practices.
作者
陈琪仁
王天韵
欧阳汝佳
CHEN Qi-ren;WANG Tian-yun;OUYANG Ru-jia
出处
《中央财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第9期55-69,共15页
Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics
