摘要
为揭示气候温升背景下青藏工程走廊带多年冻土热融蚀敏感性分布规律,基于现有地温分布、活动层厚度的野外监测数据建立了二者与热融蚀敏感性之间的多元回归模型,并采用开放系统地气耦合模型对2016年以后气候温升模式下多年冻土年平均地温和活动层厚度变化进行数值研究,进而获得未来20 a和50 a青藏工程走廊带多年冻土热融蚀敏感性分布预测图.研究结果表明,走廊带内冻土年平均地温越低,受气候温升的影响越大,而活动层厚度则随地温和气温的升高而增大,年平均气温-5.5℃工况下,其年平均地温和活动层厚度增幅分别为0.0154℃/a和0.86 cm/a;融区和高温冻土区主要分布在走廊带沿线的河流、谷地和盆地等区域,且随着气温的逐年增加,预计2066年低温冻土区域比例将减少52.1%,高温冻土区域和融区面积比例总计将增加74.7%;走廊带内多年冻土的热融蚀敏感性将大幅增加,且极敏感型冻土的增加比例将随时间而加速增长,到那时极敏感型冻土比例将增长1倍以上,敏感型和极敏感型冻土将占整个走廊带内多年冻土区的78%以上.
To reveal the distribution law of thermal thawing sensibility of permafrost along the Qinghai-Tibet engineering corridor in the climate warming condition,the multiple regression model among permafrost thermal thawing sensibility,ground temperature and active layer depth was built based on the available field monitoring data.The mean annual ground temperature and active layer depth of permafrost since 2016 was simulated with the open earth-atmosphere coupled system,and the thermal thawing sensibility distribution maps of permafrost along the Qinghai-Tibet engineering corridor in future 20 and 50 years were obtained.The results show that,with the climate warming,the variation of permafrost mean annual ground temperature in the Qinghai-Tibet engineering corridor decreases with the rising of annual average air temperature,while the active layer depth increases with the increase of annual average air and ground temperature.Under the-5.5℃air temperature condition,the increase of mean annual ground temperature and active layer depth are 0.0154℃/year and 0.86 cm/year respectively.Talik and high temperature permafrost regions mainly exist in the river,valley and basin areas of the corridor.And as the climate temperature ascending,the proportion of low temperature permafrost area decerases 52.1%,and the area of the high-temperature permafrost region and the melted region increases totally 74.7%.The thermal thawing sensitivity of permafrost in the corridor will increase greatly,and the increase rate of extremely sensitive frozen soil will accelerate with time.In 2066,the proportion of extremely sensitive permafrost will more than double,and sensitive and extremely sensitive frozen soil will account for more than 78%of the permafrost area in the entire corridor.
作者
崔福庆
刘志云
张伟
王伟
陈建兵
CUI Fuqing;LIU Zhiyun;ZHANG Wei;WANG Wei;CHEN Jianbing(College of Geological Engineering and Geomatics,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710054,China;State Key Laboratory of Road Engineering Safety and Health in Cold and High-altitude Regions,CCCC First Highway Consultants Co.Ltd.,Xi’an 710065,China)
出处
《河南科学》
2020年第8期1270-1278,共9页
Henan Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51574037,41502292)
中国交通建设股份有限公司应用基础研究项目(2018-ZJKJ-PTJS03,2016-ZJKJ-02)。
关键词
冻土
热融蚀敏感性
年平均地温
活动层厚度
分布区划
permafrost
thermal thawing sensibility
mean annual ground temperature
active layer depth
distribution map
