摘要
本研究基于中国省际季度面板数据和理论分析,建立空间计量模型并基于直接效应和间接效应分解技术,从经济增长角度揭示互联网金融发展对货币政策有效性的影响及其空间溢出特征。研究发现,互联网金融发展对经济增长的影响显著为负,但货币政策和互联网金融发展的交互项对经济增长的影响显著为正,面对互联网金融发展冲击,货币政策仍将继续有效。进一步的直接效应和间接效应分解结果表明:虽然互联网金融发展对本地区和邻近地区经济增长的影响效应均显著为负,但货币政策"总量调控"的政策属性不变。不过需要注意的是,现行互联网金融发展和货币政策交互项的影响系数较小、政策力度有待进一步增强。
Based on the inter-provincial quarterly panel data of China,this study establishes a spatial econometric model and decomposes the direct and indirect effects to reveal the impact of online financial development on the effectiveness of monetary policy and its spatial spillover characteristics from the perspective of economic growth.The study finds that the impact of online financial development on economic growth is significantly negative,but the interaction between monetary policy and online financial development has a significantly positive impact on economic growth.In the face of online financial shocks,monetary policy will remain effective.Further decomposition of direct and indirect effects shows that although the impact of online financial development on economic growth in the region and adjacent areas is significantly negative,the policy attribute of"total amount control"of monetary policy remains unchanged.However,it should be noted that the current interaction between online financial development and monetary policy has a smaller impact coefficient,and the policy strength needs to be further enhanced.
作者
姜松
周鑫悦
Jiang Song;Zhou Xinyue(School of Economics and Finance,Chongqing University of Technology,Chongqing 400054;The Center of Labor Economic and Human Resources)
出处
《上海经济》
2020年第4期74-89,共16页
Shanghai Economy
基金
国家社科基金青年项目(编号:18CGL024,项目负责人:姜松)
2018年重庆市教育委员会科学技术研究项目(KJQN201801102,项目负责人:姜松)
2019年重庆市教育委员会人文社会科学研究项目(19SKGH128,项目负责人:姜松)阶段性成果。
关键词
互联网金融发展
空间效应
货币政策有效性
动态空间面板模型
Online Finance Development
Spatial Effect
Effectiveness of Monetary Policy
Dynamic Spatial Panel Model
