摘要
新型冠状病毒疫情的爆发严重威胁了世界公共安全与人类健康,如何对人群在公共空间的呼吸暴露风险进行科学评价,是加强城市风险预警与提高大气防疫能力的基础。本文以城市环境要素对呼吸暴露风险的影响为切入点,耦合呼吸传染概率模型与城市通风环境评估模型,构建了面向空气传播途径的呼吸暴露风险评价方法。在研究区的实证研究中,计算了基于4个变量(暴露时间、人口数量、背景平均风速、人体间距)的多情形下的呼吸暴露风险空间分布。研究结果表明,个体行为模式、空间形态与风环境参数与评价结果的相关性显著,根据关键参数的空间分异特征分析,提出了针对多种风险要素的规划防疫策略。研究结果能够为保障当前常态化疫情防控阶段的公共活动安全提供重要科学依据。
The outbreak of COVID-19 has seriously threatened the world’s public security and human health.How to scientifically evaluate the risk of respiratory exposure in public space is the basis for strengthening the urban risk early warning and improving the ability of airborne epidemic prevention.In this paper,based on the impact of urban environmental factors on respiratory exposure risk,coupled with respiratory infection probability model and urban ventilation environment assessment model,a respiratory exposure risk assessment method for air transmission route is constructed.In the empirical study of the study area,the spatial distribution of respiratory exposure risk was calculated based on four variables(exposure time,population size,average background wind speed,and distance between people).The results show that indeividual behavior patterns,spatial form,and wind environment parameters have significant correlation with the evaluation results.According to the analysis of the spatial differentiation characteristics of key parameters,the planning and epidemic prevention strategies for various risk factors are proposed.The results of the study can provide important scientific basis for ensuring the safety of public activities in the current stage of normalized epidemic prevention and control.
作者
李绥
陈雨萌
石铁矛
周诗文
吴尚遇
LI Sui;CHEN Yumeng;SHI Tiemao;ZHOU Shiwen;WU Shangyu
出处
《城市规划》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第8期21-32,共12页
City Planning Review
基金
国家自然科学基金课题:基于多要素生态风险过程的矿业城市空间格局优化方法研究(51978421)。
关键词
呼吸传染
公共空间
环境要素
通风能力
暴露风险
respiratory infection
public space
environmental factors
ventilation capacity
exposure risk
