摘要
目的了解2008—2011年广东省居民死亡原因及热带气旋对死亡的影响。方法采用广义相加模型对广东省死因监测点死亡数据进行分析,探讨热带气旋对广东省居民死亡的影响,计算相对危险度(RR)和超额死亡率。结果2008—2011年广东省死因监测点居民死因顺位前5位分别为循环系统疾病、恶性肿瘤、呼吸系统疾病、损伤及中毒和消化系统疾病。热带气旋发生后的20 d内,居民死亡风险增加,RR值为1.023(95%CI=1.004~1.043)。不同人群中,男性居民和18~59岁居民20 d平均死亡风险增加。热带气旋发生后的20 d内,居民超额死亡数为449例,超额死亡率为29.4/100万。结论热带气旋能够对居民的死亡造成影响,尤其可增加男性和18~59岁人群死亡风险,应引起重视。
Objective To analyze the cause of residents′deaths and the effect of tropical cyclones on death of the residents in Guangdong province from 2008 to 2011.Methods A generalized additive model was used to analyze the death data for 6 disease surveillance points(DSPs)totally covering a population about 6 millions in Guangdong province and to explore the effect of tropical cyclones on the residents′deaths.The relative risk(RR)as well as excess mortality were calculated.Results The main causes of death were circulatory system diseases,malignancy,respiratory system diseases,injuries and poisoning,and digestive system diseases among the population from 2008 to 2011.The risk of death increased within 20 days of the occurrence of the tropical cyclones,and the RR was 1.023(95%confidence interval:1.004–1.043).In different subgroup populations,tropical cyclones increased the mortality risk of the males and the people aged 18–59 years old.The excess death was 449 and the excess mortality was 29.4/1000000 in the 20 days following the occurrences of 20 tropical cyclones during the period.Conclusion Tropical cyclones could increase the risk of mortality especially in males and the people aged 18–59 years.Attention should be paid to health effect of tropical cyclone.
作者
闫雪梅
王鑫
胡文琦
马伟
YAN Xue-mei;WANG Xin;HU Wen-qi(Department of Epidemiology,School of Public Health,Shandong University,Ji'nan,Shandong Province 250012,China;不详)
出处
《中国公共卫生》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第8期1204-1207,共4页
Chinese Journal of Public Health
基金
国家重大科学研究计划(973计划)项目(2012CB955500–95502)。
关键词
疾病监测
死亡率
热带气旋
相对危险度
超额死亡
disease surveillance
mortality
tropical cyclone
relative risk
excess death
