摘要
提高页岩气的产量是实现天然气上产的基础,但页岩气开发过程中存在的井筒完整性问题严重影响了页岩气的经济生产,甚至威胁到人员安全和环境保护。而井下安全阀作为井筒屏障系统的重要组成部分之一,在地层流体出现异常时,可以迅速关闭生产通道,从而避免井喷等严重事故的发生。因此,井下安全阀功能的正常运行对实现页岩气井安全生产有着重大意义。为此,通过故障树分析法确定了页岩气井井下安全阀的失效形式和风险因素,建立了基于贝叶斯网络模型的页岩气井井下安全阀失效概率计算方法,并结合Sintef统计数据,确定了风险因素的权重,得到了井下安全阀的风险等级,制定相应管理措施。研究结果表明:该方法可为页岩气井井下安全阀的风险评价和管理提供理论支撑及决策依据,有助于预防及控制井下安全阀的失效。
Increasing the production of shale gas is the basis for improving natural gas production.However,the problems of shale gas well integrity in the process of shale gas development have seriously affected the economic production of shale gas,and even threatened the safety of people and environment.When the flowing of formation fluid is out of control,the subsurface safety valves,as one of the important components of the wellbore barriers system,can be quickly closed to avoid the occurrence of serious accidents such as blowouts.Therefore,the normal operation of the sub-surface safety valve function is of great significance to the safe production of shale gas.To this end,this paper figures out the failure forms and risk factors of subsurface safety valves in shale gas wells through Fault Tree Analysis,and establishes a Bayesian network model-based failure probability calculation method.Combined with Sintef statistics,the weights of risk factors are determined,the risk level of subsurface safety valves is obtained,and corresponding management measures are formulated.The results show that this method can provide theoretical support and decision-making basis for risk assessment and management of subsurface safety valves in high-production gas wells,and is helpful to prevent and control the failure of subsurface safety valves.
作者
张智
赵苑瑾
吴优
邓虎
卢齐
ZHANG Zhi;ZHAO Yuanjin;WU You;DENG Hu;LU Qi(State Key Laboratory of Oil&Gas Reservoirs Geology and Exploitation,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu,Sichuan 610500,China;Drilling&Production Engineering Technology Research Institute,CCDC,Guanghan,Sichuan 618300,China)
出处
《石油管材与仪器》
2020年第4期56-62,共7页
Petroleum Tubular Goods & Instruments
基金
高等学校学科创新引智计划(111计划)专项(项目编号:D18016)
四川省青年科技创新研究团队专项计划(项目编号:20CXTD0024)。
关键词
页岩气井
井下安全阀
贝叶斯网络
风险评价
shale gas well
subsurface safety valve
Bayesian network
risk assessment
