摘要
大气污染防治工作是地方政府的重要议题,而精准治理一个城市空气污染的关键在于明确城市及其周边地区空气污染物的相互影响与传播机理。为此,应用Granger因果检验探索了北京与周边大中城市空气污染物间的因果关系,应用协整分析研究它们之间的长期稳定关系,应用系统变点检测方法检验北京实体污染物序列的分布变异。主要结论是:北京空气污染物的周边主要影响因子是承德、廊坊、张家口、保定、呼和浩特、秦皇岛的当天及前一天污染物,目前北京与周边城市的空气污染物之间没有长期稳定的关系,北京市实体污染物浓度的分布存在突变点。这些结果证实北京与周边大中城市的空气质量逐步好转,北京市历次空气重污染应急预案实施效果明显。
The prevention and control of air pollution is an important issue for local governments,and the key to accurately controlling air pollution in a city is to clarify the interaction and transmission mechanism of air pollutants in the city and its surrounding areas.To this end,Granger causality test was used to explore the causal relationship between air pollutants in Beijing and surrounding large and medium cities,cointegration analysis is used to study the long-term stable relationship between them,and systematic change point detection method was used to test the distribution variation of Beijing s solid pollutant sequence.The main conclusion is:the surrounding city's main influencing factors to Beijing air pollutants are pollutants of the day and the day before in Chengde,Langfang,Zhangjiakou,Baoding,Hohhot,Qinhuangdao,that there is currently no long-term stable relationship between air pollutants in Beijing and surrounding cities,and break points exist in the distribution of solid pollutant concentration in Beijing,which demonstrate that the air quality in Beijing and surrounding large and medium-sized cities is gradually improving,and the implementation of Beijing s previous emergency response plans for heavy air pollution has achieved significant results.
作者
张学新
周聿瑾
ZHANG Xuexin;ZHOU Yujin(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Hubei Engineering University,Xiaogan 432000,China;Wuhan Britain-China School,Wuhan 430022,China)
出处
《四川轻化工大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2020年第4期1-7,共7页
Journal of Sichuan University of Science & Engineering(Natural Science Edition)
