摘要
随着中国改革开放不断深入,我国经济实现跨越式增长的同时,收入差距也在扩大。通过构建ARIMA模型对我国基尼系数进行预测,2020年的基尼系数为0.4716,近年来波动趋于平稳,表明现行政策下我国经济结构趋于好转。根据预测结果,选择1998~2020年的面板数据,基于库兹涅茨曲线构造基尼系数项和基尼系数平方项进行实证研究,结果表明:收入差距对我国经济增长的影响呈现“倒U型”结构;城镇化水平、贸易水平对经济增长存在正向的促进作用;固定资产投资及老龄化水平则会抑制经济的增长。而要素配置的合理化、高级化会缩小收入差距,对我国经济增长产生不可或缺的影响。
While China′s economy has achieved remarkable growth with the deepening of China′s reform and opening up,the income gap is also widening.By constructing the ARIMA model to predict the Gini coefficient in China,the Gini coefficient in 2020 is 0.4716,and the fluctuation tends to be stable in recent years,which indicates that the economic structure of our country tends to improve under the current policy.On the basis of the forecasted results,the panel data of 1998~2020 are selected,and the Gini coefficient term and the square term of Gini coefficient are constructed based on the Kuznets curve.The results show that the influence of income gap on China′s economic growth presents an"inverted U"structure;urbanization level and trade level have a positive effect on economic growth;investment in fixed assets and aging level will restrain economic growth.The rationalized and advanced factor allocation will narrow the income gap and have an significant impact on China′s economic growth.
作者
曹泽
殷天赐
郝诗春
CAO Ze;YIN Tian-ci;HAO Shi-chun(School of Economics and Management,Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei Anhui 230601)
出处
《巢湖学院学报》
2020年第3期28-34,45,共8页
Journal of Chaohu University
关键词
收入差距
基尼系数
泰尔指数
要素配置
income gap
Gini coefficient
Tyre index
feature configuration
