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基于层次分析法的自然科学研究项目执行能力的风险评估

Risk Assessment of Execution Ability of Natural Science Research Project based on AHP
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摘要 根据自然科学研究项目评审工作的特点,建立了自然科学研究项目执行能力的层次分析结构模型,给出了3个一级指标和12个二级指标的判断矩阵,并通过一致性检验,计算出各指标的风险权重;结合专家评分,对样本项目进行综合运算,得出各项目执行能力的风险等级.结果表明自然科学研究项目的执行力体现在试验人员、试验方案、团队管理以及核心成员的学术能力上,需加强控制,制定相应的措施;在申报项目时,选择科研能力强和团队意识好的团队成员,制定试验方案时,要制定合理、细化、操作性强以及可执行的规划.在自然科学研究项目评审时,引入层次分析法,主观概念进行了量化,计算结果更精确,实用性强,有一定的推广价值. According to the characteristics of the evaluation work of natural science research projects,the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)model of the execution ability of natural science research projects is established,and the judgment matrix of three first level indexes and 12 second level indexes is given,and the risk weight of each index is calculated through the consistency test;the risk of each project execution ability is obtained through the comprehensive calculation of sample projects combined with the expert score Grade.The results show that the execution of natural science research projects is reflected in the ability of experimenters,experimental programs,team management and core members,and it is necessary to strengthen control and formulate corresponding measures;when applying for projects,select team members with strong scientific research ability and team awareness,and formulate reasonable,detailed,operational and execuTab.plans when formulating experimental programs.In the evaluation of natural science research projects,analytic hierarchy process(AHP)is introduced,and subjective concepts are quantified.The calculation results are more accurate and practical,which has a certain promotion value.
作者 梁冠军 林祖宏 尤超 朱永祥 LIANG Guanjun;LIN Zuhong;YOU Chao;ZHU YongXiang(College of Civil Engineering, Chuzhou Vocational and Technical College, Chuzhou,Anhui 239000;College of Civil Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092)
出处 《绵阳师范学院学报》 2020年第8期25-29,34,共6页 Journal of Mianyang Teachers' College
基金 安徽省教育厅自然科学重点研究项目(KJ2019A1123,KJ2017A726) 滁州职业技术学院人才项目(YG2017006)。
关键词 层次分析法 自然科学研究项目 执行能力 风险评估 AHP natural science research project executive ability risk assessment
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