摘要
本文以2004—2017年A股上市公司的并购发起事件为研究样本,考察了经济政策不确定性对中国上市公司并购行为的影响。基于现有研究提出的等待期权假说的逻辑,经济政策不确定性越高,企业发起并购的可能性就越低,并购绩效也越好。然而,基于中国数据,本文却发现不一致的结论:经济政策不确定性越高,并购绩效就越差。为了解释该现象,本文基于中国情景提出了柠檬市场假说:鉴于经济政策不确定性加剧了信息不对称,进而导致投资者更难判断并购的价值,并低估并购收益,形成了柠檬市场,抑制企业发起并购,尤其是抑制替代性投资机会多的公司发起并购(即逆向选择)。基于该逻辑,经济政策不确定性越高,企业发起的并购绩效就越差。本文从多个角度检验了柠檬市场假说。整体上看,柠檬市场假说可作为现有研究的重要补充。
This paper takes the 2004-2017 A-share listed company's M&A launch event as a research sample,and examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the M&A behavior of Chinese listed companies.Based on the waiting option hypothesis proposed by the existing research,the higher the economic policy uncertainty is,the lower the probability of the company launching the M&A is,and the better the M&A performance is.However,based on Chinese data,we find inconsistent conclusions.When economic policy uncertainty is high,the M&A performance is poor.To explain this phenomenon,this article proposes the lemon market hypothesis based on the Chinese institutional background.Given that economic policy uncertainty has exacerbated information asymmetry,which has made it more difficult for investors to assess the value of M&A,they will underestimate the value of M&A.Then a lemon market will be formed which inhibits the companies and especially those that have more alternative investment opportunities(i.e.,adverse selection)from initiating M&A.Based on this logic,the more uncertain the economic policies are,the worse the performance of M&A initiated by enterprises is.This article examines the lemon market hypothesis from multiple perspectives.On the whole,the lemon market hypothesis can be an important supplement to existing research.
作者
黄灿
俞勇
郑鸿
HUANG Can;YU Yong;ZHENG Hong(Guangdong University of Technology,510520;Guangdong Utrust Investment Holding Co.,Ltd.,510045;Renmin University of China,100872;Tsinghua University,100084)
出处
《财贸经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第8期95-109,共15页
Finance & Trade Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“股东关系网络与企业创新:基于股东异质性的视角”(71902040)
广东省软科学面上项目“广东科技金融发展思路与对策研究”(2020A1010020036)
广东省自然科学基金项目“‘强关系’抑或‘弱关系’?股东关系网络的影响机理研究:基于企业绩效的视角”(2018A030310572)。
关键词
经济政策不确定性
并购
等待期权
信息不对称
Economic Policy Uncertainty
M&A
Waiting Option
Information Asymmetry
