摘要
为了更好的发挥饲草料储备库在灾害风险管理中的应用,提高高原牧区灾害韧性。该研究将雪灾高风险区与实际多年雪灾发生区相结合,采用P-中值模型提出了饲草料储备库的选址分析方法,并利用贪婪取走启发式算法对模型求解。以青海省雪灾高风险区为例,选址分析得出治多、玛沁、都兰3座饲草料储备库和麻多、扎朵、秋智等13座饲草料储备点的分布位置与储备规模。其中治多储备规模为21.0万t;玛沁储备规模为13.2万t;都兰储备规模为13.5万t。布局上形成了以储备库为中心,储备点为外围的二元结构,验证了分析方法的合理性和可行性。从而为高原牧区饲草料储备库的选址提供参考性理论依据和可操作性方法。
Snow disaster become a gradually increasing trend,due to the global climate change,particularly on the frequency,intensity,and duration in high risk area of extreme weather.In addition,the prevention and reduction of natural disaster have posed a major challenge on the international community.Therefore,it is urgent to accurately predict the disaster risk,in order to reduce the losses from the snow disaster.Being one of the most important bases for stockbreeding,the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is a typical region with high incidence of snow disasters in western China.In the high risk area of snow disaster,forage reserves play a vital role in the emergency response to snow disasters in pastoral areas.The objectives of this study were,1)to evaluate the high risk area of snow disaster,and to verify the accuracy using the actual occurrence areas;2)to propose a new method for the site selection of forage reserves by modifying P-median model;3)to explore the optimum sites for forage reserves over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.The high-risk areas of snow disaster and the occurrence areas in actual years were combined,in order to better evaluate the risk of snow disaster in disaster risk management,and thereby to improve the disaster resilience of plateau pastoral areas.The number of livestock in county-level administrative units and vector data of national basic roads were collected from government units and the National Basic Geographic Information Center.The P-median model was selected to evaluate the sites selection,compared with other models,such as P-center model,maximum coverage model,P-median model.In addition,a modified P-median model was proposed to evaluate the optimum sites of forage reserves in this study area,according to the calculation demand for livestock forage,and the optimal path from the facility to the demand of models.The high-risk area of snow disaster for the Qinghai Province can serve as a case to verify the models.The results showed that 1)Zhiduo,Maqin and Dulan counties were the optimum forage reserv
作者
赵富昌
周强
刘峰贵
陈琼
陈永萍
支泽民
Zhao Fuchang;Zhou Qiang;Liu Fenggui;Chen Qiong;Chen Yongping;Zhi Zemin(College of Geography,Qinghai Normal University,Xining 810008,China;Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability,Xining 810008,China)
出处
《农业工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第13期272-279,共8页
Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering
基金
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0906)
国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFA0606902)。
关键词
风险评估
贮备饲料
灾害
储备库
选址
P-中值模型
雪灾高风险区
risk assessment
silage forage
disasters
forage reserves
location selection
the P-median model
the high risk area of snow disaster
