摘要
本文选取新疆玛纳斯河流域为研究区,基于出山口肯斯瓦特水文站1955―2014年的日径流观测资料。采用年最大值法(AM)抽取序列样本,利用线性拟合法、滑动平均法、Mann-Kendall非参数秩次相关检验法分析季节性洪水序列特征变化趋势;采用Pettitt检验和R/S法检验年春季最大日流量、年夏季日最大流量和年秋季日最大流量序列的突变现象,并利用突变现象划分洪水序列,分析其阶段趋势变化规律。结果表明:年春季最大日流量不存在明显的趋势及突变性;年夏季最大日流量总体具有上升的趋势但并不明显,其中在1993年发生中等变异,变异点后序列幅度较为明显;年秋季最大日流量具有明显的上升趋势,但未发现存在明显的变异现象。
In this paper,the author,selecting Manas river basin in Xinjiang as study area,based on the daily runoff observation data collected from ken Swart hydrologic station located at the col from the year 1955 to2014,selected sequence samples by annual maximum method(AM),analyzed the variation trend about seasonal flood sequence characteristics by linear fitting method,moving average method and Mann Kendall nonparametric rank correlation test method,tested respectively the mutation of the maximum daily flows in spring,summer and autumn by Pettitt test and R/S method,and divided the flood Water sequence,analyzed its stage trend variation law by means of mutations.The results show that there is no obvious trend and mutation in the maximum daily flows in spring,the maximum daily flows in summer appeared upward trend on the whole,but not obvious,only moderate variation in them appeared in 1993,the sequence amplitude is relatively obvious after the variation point,and the maximum daily flows in autumn appeared obviously upward trend,but no obvious variation is found.
出处
《吉林水利》
2020年第7期25-28,52,共5页
Jilin Water Resources
关键词
洪水
趋势性
突变性
分解-合成
玛纳斯河
Manas river
flood
Trend
mutability
Decomposition and synthesis
