摘要
作为国民经济的主导产业之一,油气行业对国民经济有着重要的推动作用。在影响油气行业上游发展的诸多因素中,技术进步带来的作用十分关键。本文针对我国15个油气生产省份,基于技术进步与经济增长理论,采用DEA方法,从纵向和横向上定量测算了这些省份2003—2017年间技术有效值、全要素生产率和技术进步贡献率3个指标的变化情况,以科学解释技术进步对我国油气工业上游发展的具体效果。计算结果表明,不同省份的技术有效值存在较大差异,广东、四川和青海省的技术有效值相对较高,而甘肃、吉林和河南的技术有效值较低,导致这种差异的重要原因在于油气资源状况与技术水平;我国油气勘探开发行业全要素生产率总体上呈现出了增长趋势,2003—2017年全要素生产率的平均增长率为9.1%,同期对油气产出的平均贡献率为215.4%,表明综合技术进步确实对油气上游产出产生了显著的正贡献;对全要素生产率分析发现,技术进步平均增长率为6.4%,技术效率平均增长率为14.9%,规模效率平均增长率为8.8%,纯技术效率平均增长为3.5%,表明规模效率显著提升引起的技术效率提高是全要素生产率增长的主要原因。在未来油气资源勘探难度增大、资源丰度下降、资源劣质化程度加深的背景下,中国油气行业上游勘探开发将更加依赖科技的持续进步,需要国家、行业、企业3个维度共同作用,一方面重视规模效率对技术效率的影响,通过对新技术的推广利用做大技术的规模效应,进而提高技术效率;另一方面,加大对革命性技术的投入,并加强对科技人员的培养,以不断涌现的技术成果解决油气勘探开发行业遇到的一系列难题,促进油气勘探开发行业的可持续发展。
The oil and gas industry plays an important role in the national economy.Among the many factors affecting the development of the upstream oil and gas industry,the role of technological progress is critical.Based on the theory of technological progress and economic growth,this paper used the data envelopment analysis(DEA)method to quantitatively calculate the changes of three indicators from 2003 to 2017 in 15 oil and gas producing provinces in China These indicators are technical effective value,total factor productivity and contribution rate of technological progress,to explain the specific effects of technological progress on the development of China’s upstream oil and gas industry.The results show that the technical effective values of different provinces vary greatly.Guandong,Sichuan and Qinghai are relatively high,while Gansu,Jilin and Henan are relatively low,and the important reason for the difference lies in the oil and gas resources and technical level.The total factor productivity of China's oil and gas exploration and development industry shows an overall growth trend,with an average growth rate of 9.1%from 2003 to 2017,and its overall contribution to output during the same period was 215%,indicating that comprehensive technological progress had indeed made a significant positive contribution to the upstream oil and gas output.Furthermore,the analysis of total factor productivity shows that the average growth rate of technological progress,technological efficiency,scale efficiency and pure technical efficiency are 6.4%,14.9%,8.8%and 3.5%respectively,which indicates that technical efficiency improvement caused by the significant increase of scale efficiency is the main reason for the growth of total factor productivity.Against the background of increasing difficulty in prospecting for oil and gas resources,decreasing resource abundance,and reducing resource quality,China's oil and gas industry upstream exploration and development will be more dependent on the continuous progress of science and technol
作者
刘明明
胡欢
王建良
LIU Mingming;HU Huan;WANG Jianliang(School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum-Beijing,Beijing 102249,China)
出处
《石油科学通报》
2020年第2期290-298,共9页
Petroleum Science Bulletin
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金(19YJCZH106)
国家自然科学基金项目(71874201,71503264,71673297,71874202)资助。
关键词
油气工业
DEA
技术进步
技术效率
规模效率
贡献率
oil and gas industry
DEA
technological progress
technological efficiency
scale efficiency
contribution rate
