摘要
利用2000—2018年四川省自贡市水稻(Oryza sativa L.)二化螟[Chilo suppressalis(Walker)]发生历史资料与气象资料研究自贡市气象条件对水稻二化螟发生的影响。通过对水稻二化螟灯下诱蛾量与气象条件的分析,选取相关性显著、生物学意义明确的气象因子,采用多元回归分析建立自贡市水稻二化螟发生气象等级预报模型。结果表明,自贡市冬季平均气温对水稻二化螟发生气象等级影响最为显著,翌年各时段温度、降水和湿度条件次之,且常年较高的冬季气温是导致二化螟发生气象等级多年处于3~4级的最关键气象因素。历史回代检验气象等级拟合准确率达72%,2018年试报检验气象等级准确率达到100%,模型预测效果较好,能够为自贡市开展水稻二化螟防治提供科学的气象决策依据。
The effect of meteorological conditions on occurrence of Chilo suppressalis(Walker)of rice(Oryza sativa L.)in Zigong city,Sichuan province were studied by using historical and meteorological data of the same period from 2000 to 2018.Meteorological factors with significant correlation and clear biological significance were selected through the analysis of the quantity of inducible moth of Chilo suppressalis(Walker)under the lamp and meteorological condition,and the multiple regression analysis was used to establish the meteorological forecast model of Chilo suppressalis(Walker)in Zigong city.The results showed that the average temperature in winter in Zigong city had the most significant influence on the meteorological level of Chilo suppressalis(Walker),followed by the temperature,precipitation and humidity in each period of the following year,and the higher winter temperature was the most important meteorological factor that caused the meteorological grade of Chilo suppressalis(Walker)to be 3~4 for many years.The fitting accuracy rate of meteorological grade of historical regression test reached 72%,and the accuracy rate of meteorological grade of 2018 test report reached 100%,indicated that the model has a good prediction effect and can provide scientific meteorological decision-making basis for the control of Chilo suppressalis(Walker)in Zigong city.
作者
罗伟
段修荣
钟莉
王茹琳
李强
LUO Wei;DUAN Xiu-rong;ZHONG Li;WANG Ru-lin;LI Qiang(Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorological,China Meteorology Administration/Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610072,China;Zigong Meteorological Bureau,Zigong 643000,Sichuan,China;Fushun County Plant Quarantine Station,Fushun 643200,Sichuan,China;Sichuan Provincial Rural Economic Information Center,Chengdu 610072,China)
出处
《湖北农业科学》
2020年第9期20-23,共4页
Hubei Agricultural Sciences
基金
高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目(省重实验室2018-重点-05-11,省重实验室-SCQXKJQN2019034)。
