摘要
当今社会,老龄问题不断深化,老年人权益保障和养老服务行业供需矛盾依旧比较突出。如何建立个人能更好地养老服务体系,是当今社会普遍关注的一个问题。首先以唐山市老年人口及老年人口比重数据、近十年养老机构从业人员数为原始序列,建立灰色系统预测模型,得出了未来20-30年的预测数据和未来20-30年养老行业人员需求情况。最后,通过预测模型精度等级评判表对模型检验。依据所得预测数据,分析出唐山市未来的老年人口以及养老床位数量一直处于上升趋势,即养老需求和供给情况均处于上升趋势,以及2050年唐山市养老机构所需工作人员达到9500个。模型精度等级为1级,即模型精度很高,说明模型建立合理正确。
In today's society,the problem of aging is deepening,and the contradiction between the rights and interests of the elderly and the supply and demand of the elderly service industry is still prominent.How to establish a better pension service system is a common concern in today's society.Firstly,the grey system prediction model is established based on the original sequence of the elderly population and the proportion of the elderly population in Tangshan city and the number of employees in pension service institutions in the recent ten years to obtain the forecast data of the next 20-30 years and the demand of personnel in the pension industry in the next 20-30 years.Finally,the model is tested by the accuracy rating table of the prediction model.Based on the predicted data,it is analyzed that the elderly population and the number of beds for the aged in Tangshan city in the future are always on the rise,that is,the demand and supply for the aged are both on the rise,and the number of staff required by the aged institutions in Tangshan city will reach 9,500 by 2050.The accuracy level of the model is level 1,which means the model has high accuracy,indicating that the model is reasonable and correct.
出处
《数码设计》
2020年第6期162-162,共1页
Peak Data Science
关键词
养老服务体系
灰色系统预测模型
养老经济发展潜力
相关分析
pension service system
Grey system prediction model
Potential for old-age economic development
Correlation analysis
